The list is long and Mexico is on it
The Trump administration has just lit another fuse on the already complex board of global trade. The Office of the Trade Representative (USTR) announced formal investigations against more than a dozen economies, including Mexico, the European Union and China.
The official reason is to look for unfair trade practices linked to excess industrial capacity. In simple words: countries that produce much more than they consume, flooding the markets.
“We hope this investigation will uncover a number of unfair trade practices,” Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a call with reporters.
And what happens if they find something?
The path is clear: if irregularities are determined, Washington will most likely impose additional tariffs. It is the same script as Section 301, a 1974 law that Trump has already used as a hammer.
The curious thing is who is not on the list: Canada. Despite being a key partner, he was saved… for now. The focus is on economies with large trade surpluses with the US.
The USTR argues that this global overcapacity “may chill production and new investment in the United States.” They note that, in 2024, global factories operated at only 75-76% of their capacity, below the level considered healthy.
“The United States will no longer sacrifice its industrial base in favor of other countries,” warns the official statement, marking a hard line.
For Mexico, the risk is real and tangible
Currently, a general tariff of 10% applies to all partners. But this new research points to something more specific and punitive. And timing is key.
Greer said they want to conclude the investigations before that general tariff (Section 122) expires. The clock is ticking: they have about 150 days. They have already requested consultations with the affected governments.
Public hearings and an accelerated bureaucratic process loom. For Mexico, this means another layer of tension within the USMCA just when we thought the rules were clear.
The official rhetoric is forceful: repatriate supply chains and create well-paying jobs on American soil. But behind it there is a broader geopolitical message: the trade war did not end, it just mutated.
And meanwhile, binational families and businesses wait again, watching how decisions made in Washington can alter their everyday economies.




