The escalation that no one knows how to stop
Alarm bells rang in Bahrain. Saudi Arabia shot down drones. And over the west of Tehran, cameras captured flashes and columns of smoke this Saturday at dawn. Israel said a “broad wave” of attacks had begun. Iran responded by launching missiles.
But this is only the prelude, as they warn from Washington. A US official talks about “the biggest bombing” yet coming. A campaign that, they promise, will be the most intense in this conflict that is now one week old.
“The ‘biggest bombing campaign’ of the war was still to come,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on television.
While the missiles fly, statements from Washington add fuel to the fire. Donald Trump published on his networks: “There will be no agreement with Iran except unconditional surrender!”. And he went further: he said that the United States should participate in the election of the successor to Ayatollah Khamenei, who died in the first attacks.
The Iranian response was immediate. Its ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani, was forceful:
“Iran does not accept and will never allow any foreign power to interfere in its internal affairs.”
The map is widening, the economy is shaking
What began as an exchange between two countries is now affecting the entire region. Sirens sounded in Bahrain due to an Iranian attack. Saudi Arabia reported having destroyed drones aimed at its Shaybah oil field and shot down a missile towards an air base with US troops.
And there is the data that makes global markets tremble: Qatar’s Energy Minister warned the Financial Times that the war could “bring down the world’s economies.” He predicts a massive shutdown of Gulf energy exports that could drive oil to $150 a barrel. This Friday, US crude oil surpassed $90 for the first time in more than two years.
In Lebanon, the situation is dramatic. The Ministry of Health reports 217 deaths and 798 injuries from Israeli attacks since Monday. Beirut’s roads were clogged with people trying to flee as smoke covered southern districts.
Jihan Shehadeh, one displaced person among thousands, summed it up starkly:
“What can we do? We pray here under the tree. At night we sleep in the car because there is no place to stay.”
The dead tell another story
Official figures speak of at least 1,230 deaths in Iran, more than 200 in Lebanon and around a dozen in Israel. Six American soldiers have lost their lives.
But there is one tragedy that hurts especially: the explosion at a school in Minab, southeast of Tehran, on February 28. Iranian state media says more than 165 people died, most of them children. New information with satellite images and expert analysis suggests that it was probably caused by US airstrikes.
Meanwhile, a new actor appears behind the scenes: Russia. Two officials familiar with U.S. intelligence say Moscow has provided Iran with information that could help Tehran attack U.S. ships and aircraft in the region. It is the first clear indication that Putin is trying to put his hand in this conflict.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote vaguely about “mediation efforts” initiated by “some countries.” But with Trump demanding unconditional surrender and Israel preparing its biggest offensive, the negotiating table today seems like a distant mirage.
