The flight of capital that no one in the Palace wants to see
The figures are cold, forceful and speak for themselves. While the official discourse speaks of sovereignty, the numbers tell another story: a drain on foreign capital from the energy heart of the country.
The National Registry of Foreign Investments makes it clear. Foreign investment in the electricity industry plummeted by 98% last year. But the most revealing data is in oil and gas: a negative balance of 206 million dollars. It is not that little new money arrives. It’s that more is leaving than entering.
“All signs have always been anti-energy sector, it is not surprising that foreign investors do not see the Mexican energy sector as attractive,” said Gerardo Rocha O’Kelard, managing partner of Kearney México.
The message that the government sends (without saying it)
The analysts consulted by EL UNIVERSAL do not mince words. Constitutional reforms and low hydrocarbon production have created a perfect cocktail to scare away investments. And it is not perception: it is pure mathematics.
The OECD put its finger on a key change. The National Energy Commission now operates as a decentralized entity of the Ministry of Energy, not as an independent regulator.
“Its institutional location within the secretariat generates risks related to the perception of regulatory independence and impartiality,” warned the international organization.
Óscar Ocampo, from Imco, was more direct: “It is quite explicit that the government is not interested in attracting large international operators.” Schlumberger and Halliburton are the names that everyone thinks of but no one in government offices mentions.
The unfulfilled promise that hurts the balance sheets
Here is the core of the matter. Those who invested after the opening of 2014 did so with an expectation: more rounds, more opportunities, a dynamic sector.
“If you invested in Mexico with the opening of 2014… it was with the expectation that there would be more rounds of bidding. When expectations are not met, it may not be as attractive to stay,” explained Ocampo.
It’s the old trick: you open the door for capital to come in, then close it when it’s inside. The problem is that capital has memory… and legs to leave.
Meanwhile, Pemex recognizes in its own reports the obvious: decrease in the production platform due to depletion of mature fields. The sign is clear: the end of what is easily removable.
The reforms transformed Pemex and CFE into “public companies” with a crucial detail: they were no longer required to be profitable. For a private investor, that single phrase is enough to put away the checkbook.
The third consecutive year with net outflows in natural gas supply completes the picture. It is not an isolated bad fact. It’s a persistent pattern that smacks of deliberate politics disguised as energy sovereignty.
