The diplomatic announcement and the geopolitical reality
The president of the United States, Donald Trump, began the week with a statement that resonated in international diplomatic circles: the affirmation of significant progress in his efforts to bring the positions of Moscow and kyiv closer together. His administration announced that it had begun preparations to facilitate direct talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This movement was presented as a crucial step towards the long-awaited peace in a region devastated by a prolonged conflict.
However, the initial optimism quickly dissipated. In a period of just four days, the position of the main diplomatic body of the Russian Federation revealed the deep divergences that persist. Friday’s statements made it absolutely clear that Putin would not agree to a summit with Zelenskyy until the Ukrainian government agreed in advance to a series of key demands raised by Moscow. This precondition, which addresses the very core of the territorial and security disputes, constituted a conclusive setback for the White House strategy, which had been promoted as a diplomatic offensive decisive to stop a war that Trump had promised to resolve at the beginning of his term.
Washington’s strategic response and growing skepticism
Faced with this obstacle, President Trump indicated that he would evaluate his next actions within a period of fourteen days, conditioning them on the materialization or failure of the direct talks. Among the options considered, he mentioned the possibility of imposing new economic sanctions or trade tariffs against Russia, a recurring threat in his rhetoric that, to date, has not been translated into large-scale concrete measures. “We’re going to see if they have a meeting or not,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, projecting an attitude of vigilant expectation. “It will be interesting to watch. If they don’t have one, why didn’t they have a meeting? Because I told them to have one. But I’ll know what I’m going to do in two weeks.”
This announcement of a breakthrough came immediately after Trump concluded a round of consultations at the White House with Zelenskyy and several European leaders, complemented by a telephone communication with Putin. European leaders initially welcomed Trump’s tone during those meetings, especially after his vague promises to support future European security guarantees for Ukraine once hostilities end. That stance seemed to calm the anxiety generated in Europe after the Alaska summit, where Trump had seemed to lean toward Russia’s demand that Ukraine cede currently occupied territories.
Moscow’s inflexible stance and the dynamics of the conflict
However, uncertainty regarding the Kremlin’s true commitment to the peace efforts promoted by Washington has only intensified. Russian officials have openly objected to the fundamental pillars of the nascent proposals on the negotiating table. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was categorical in stating that Putin is willing to meet with Zelenskyy, but only to discuss the terms of a peace once the key issues have been resolved beforehand. This position, in practice, implies a prolonged negotiation process, given that the demands of both parties remain diametrically opposed. “There is no meeting planned,” Lavrov said in an interview. “Putin is willing to meet with Zelenskyy when the agenda is ready for a summit, and this agenda is not ready at all.”
The uncertainty injected by Moscow also extends to the crucial issue of security guarantees. As Ukraine and its allies in the West work on detailed proposals to deter future aggression, Lavrov declared that any security arrangement for Ukraine that is made without Moscow’s active participation would be useless. In parallel, Putin made a symbolic visit to Sarov, a city historically linked to Russia‘s nuclear weapons program, a not-so-subtle reminder of its status as a global nuclear power. “He has not moderated his position significantly,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London and former British ambassador to Belarus.
Continuous violence and warnings from Europe
The contradiction between the rhetoric of peace and the reality of the conflict became evident when, at the same time that Trump was promoting his plan for talks, Russia launched one of its largest air assaults of the year, concentrating its attack on western Ukraine with a barrage of 574 drones and 40 ballistic and cruise missiles. “The Russians are trying to do anything to prevent the meeting (summit). The problem is not the meeting itself, the problem is that they do not want to end the war,” Zelenskyy said during NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s visit to kyiv.
Rutte, for his part, explained that Trump’s objective is to “break the stagnation” and involve the United States in a scheme of bilateral security guarantees for Ukraine, structured in two layers: the strengthening of the Ukrainian armed forces and direct security commitments from Europe and the United States. Not everyone shares this cautious optimism. The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, warned that the mere discussion of the possibility of Ukraine giving up territory as part of an agreement is “a trap” set by Putin. Granting concessions in exchange for stopping the invasion, he argued, would be equivalent to rewarding the aggressor who started the conflict. “The whole discussion revolves around what Ukraine should give up… but we forget that Russia has not made a single concession,” Kallas stressed in an interview with the BBC, concluding that “Russia is only buying time. It is clear that Russia does not want peace.”
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