The tension rises, so do the words
On Thursday it became clear: Iran and the United States continue to talk tough from opposite trenches. As ceasefire talks stall, more U.S. troops move into the region. The shadow of a major climb is long.
Donald Trump extended his deadline until April 6 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran, in response, not only maintains its control over that crucial route, but according to an Arab bloc, now charges a toll for safe passage.
Jasem Mohamed al-Budaiwi, secretary general of the Gulf Cooperation Council, stated that “Iran charges for safe passage.”
Lloyd’s List Intelligence calls it a “‘de facto toll booth’ regime.” At least two ships have paid in Chinese yuan.
A war of attrition with a global bottleneck
For Washington, the objectives have been changing: from ending Iran’s nuclear programs to overthrowing the theocratic government. The attacks have been harsh, with military leaders downed and infrastructure battered.
But Iran continues firing missiles. For its leadership, resisting is already a victory. Their strategy seems clear: endure the blow and strangle the world economy by controlling Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil and gas passes.
The price of Brent crude oil has risen more than 40% since the war began.
Trump vowed to attack Iranian power plants if they don’t reopen the strait by deadline. Tehran threatens retaliation against vital infrastructure, such as desalination plants.
Trump said he postponed the deadline because negotiations are going “very well.”
But the facts paint a different picture. Through intermediaries such as Pakistan and Egypt, the US provided a 15-point “action list” for a possible deal. Iran has its own five-point proposal, including reparations and recognition of sovereignty over Hormuz.
The Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, was forceful:
“The United States had tried to send messages to Iran through other nations, but that is not a conversation or a negotiation.”
As words fly, so do ships. The USS Tripoli approaches the Middle East with about 2,500 Marines. At least 1,000 more paratroopers were ordered to be deployed.
Ali Bahraini, Iranian envoy in Geneva, warned that any attempted ground invasion would be a “serious” mistake.
In Israel, sirens sounded for Iranian missiles. They reported intense bombings near Isfahan, a city with an air base and nuclear facilities. In Lebanon, Israel deploys more troops against Hezbollah.
The human cost grows: more than 1,900 dead in Iran, 18 in Israel, 13 American soldiers and more than 1,100 in Lebanon according to local authorities.
The question now is not who will win the next battle, but how much pain each side is willing to endure before someone actually gives in.
