The pending account of the United States
The official figure has just come out. The United States trade deficit fell a little in 2025, remaining at about $901 billion. Yes, it was down from 904 billion last year. But don’t claim victory.
It is the third highest figure in history. And this is happening with Donald Trump in the White House, imposing heavy tariffs on almost all of the country’s trading partners. The promise was clear: reduce the imbalance. The reality, as almost always, is more complicated.
A puzzle with moving pieces
Look at this fact: the deficit in physical goods (machinery, airplanes) reached a historical record of 1.24 trillion dollars. The reason? An avalanche of chip and technology imports from Taiwan, fueled by the investment fever in artificial intelligence.
Here’s the interesting twist. With China, the old rival, the deficit plummeted by almost 32%. But be careful: it was not because of a US export boom. It was because both sales and purchases between both countries fell. The relationship cools and trade suffers.
Meanwhile, other countries fill the void. The deficit with Taiwan doubled. With Vietnam it rose 44%. Experts are already whispering: these could be the next targets of the US administration.
In our backyard, the dynamic is mixed. The imbalance with Mexico exceeds 197 billion, while with Canada it was significantly reduced. Right now the renewal of the Trump era trade agreement with both countries is being negotiated.
Experts warn that these countries could become the new focus of attention of the US administration.
There is a light at the end of the tunnel: the surplus in services (banking, tourism) grew to 339 billion. And here is a surprise for the doomsayers: those tariffs that were so scary have not caused an inflationary spiral as ferocious as feared.
The conclusion is clear. They change the names on the bill, but the bill itself is still huge. Geopolitics rewrites commercial maps day by day, but the underlying problem persists.
