Earthquakes in Venezuela: water crisis and massive displacement

The International Monetary Fund adjusted downwards its projections for the world economy, affected by the energy shock derived from the conflict with Iran. However, the rise of investment in artificial intelligence and other technologies partially offsets the impact.

The organization expects the global economy to grow just 3% in 2026, compared to 3.5% the previous year and the 3.1% estimated in April. By 2027, the IMF expects a rebound to 3.4%.

Effects of the conflict in Iran

After the military actions of the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28, Tehran interrupted transit through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and natural gas circulates. Energy prices skyrocketed, putting pressure on companies and consumers. The IMF now expects oil to rise almost 32% this year and global inflation to reach 4.7% in 2026, up from 4.1% in 2025, halting two years of anti-inflationary progress.

These forecasts assume that the strait will reopen this month and that trade will normalize by March, although the White House declared on Wednesday that the ceasefire with Iran was over.

Regional overview

“The global economy has weathered the shock better than feared,” said Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director of the IMF’s research department. The damage was limited because countries used oil reserves and exporters outside the Persian Gulf increased production.

The United States, which produces its own energy and benefits from investment in AI, will grow 2.3% this year, up from 2.1% in 2025. Trump’s tax cuts, productivity improvements and a strong stock market sustain its economy. In contrast, the eurozone — hit by high energy prices — will grow just 0.9%, compared to 1.4% in 2025.

China will expand 4.6% this year, less than the previous 5%, but driven by public works, high-tech manufacturing and exports, despite the real estate collapse. India will continue to be the fastest growing large economy, at 6.4%, supported by strong consumption.

The IMF, a credit organization for 191 countries, seeks to promote growth and global financial stability.

Condemnation for the sinking of the ARA San Juan

A federal court sentenced Claudio Villamide, former ship captain and former commander of the Argentine Submarine Force, to three years of suspended prison. The sentence, issued on Tuesday in Santa Cruz, found him responsible for breach of duties as a public official and negligent damage aggravated by the disappearance of the submarine ARA San Juan in 2017, which caused the death of its 44 crew members.

Villamide stated before the verdict:

“I am innocent. To this day I do not clearly understand why they have accused me of the sinking of the submarine.”

The judges imposed rules of conduct for three years: establish address and telephone number, notify changes, not commit new crimes and submit to criminal control. The ex-marine will not go to prison.

Acquitted and appeal

The court unanimously acquitted Luis Enrique López Mazzeo, Héctor Alonso and Hugo Correa, three other accused officers. Luis Tagliapietra, father of a deceased crew member and representative of the plaintiffs, announced that they will appeal the sentence.

“The sentences imposed are far from what we had requested,” he told The Associated Press. Tagliapietra had requested between seven and eight years in prison for the four sailors.

Chronology of the tragedy

The ARA San Juan disappeared on November 15, 2017 in the South Atlantic, while returning from Ushuaia to Mar del Plata. That day he reported a fault due to water entering the batteries, but he claimed to have solved it. Hours later an explosion occurred.

The judicial investigation determined that the German-made submarine had operational deficiencies reported to Villamide before setting sail on October 25. The water entered through the ventilation system, causing a short circuit and an uncontrolled descent. After exceeding 600 meters of depth, the hull imploded.

A year later, the company Ocean Infinity found the remains 600 km east of Comodoro Rivadavia, in the province of Chubut.

An old acquaintance returns to court

The United States Attorney’s Office bases much of its accusation against oil magnate James Jensen and his family on the testimony of a confidential informant who had already collaborated with justice more than a decade ago. This is Luis Ariel Rivera Rodríguez, a 53-year-old naturalized Mexican-American, owner of the company Luxemborg Trading LLC.

Rivera, identified as CI-1 in court documents, met secretly with prosecutors and agents from the FBI, DEA and Homeland Security in Texas since mid-2024. He recounted how the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) participated in the theft of oil from Pemex and its smuggling into the United States.

300 million dollar business

According to the indictment, between 2018 and 2025, around 4,000 shipments of crude oil worth $300 million were trafficked. The fuel was brought into the US disguised as “petroleum distillate” or “used lubricating oil.”

Rivera stated that the CJNG controlled the roads in Mexico and collected extortions. He said he paid $2,000 per tank to operate. He also mentioned that he bribed federal, state and local officials, and that customs intermediaries falsified documents to export crude oil.

A history that repeats itself

Rivera is not new to this type of case. In 2008 he was arrested in an operation against the Gulf Cartel, which then controlled the theft of hydrocarbons in the Burgos Basin. Pemex reported losses of 300 million dollars. Rivera collaborated with the authorities and spent some years in prison until 2013.

At that time, James Jensen was already listed as a buyer of the stolen fuel, linked to companies such as Big Star Gathering LTD. However, Jensen avoided the accusations at the time.

The restaurant trap

In April 2025, Rivera arranged a meeting with James and Maxwell Jensen at a restaurant in Dallas. He had hidden microphones. He spoke about his relationship with the CJNG, mentioned leaders such as El Mencho (who died this year in a Mexican Army operation), El Tanque and Chuy 7, and recalled that President Trump had classified the cartel as a terrorist organization. That conversation supports the accusation that the Jensens knew they were dealing with organized crime.

The Jensens’ defense maintains that Rivera set a trap for them and that they were unaware of the illicit origin of the fuel. But the fact that both were involved in the same criminal plot twenty years ago complicates their version.

James Jensen, his wife Kelly Anne, and their children Maxwell and Zachary were arrested on April 23, 2025. They face charges of smuggling, money laundering, and financing a terrorist organization. The case is being litigated in the Southern District Court of Texas.