The International Monetary Fund adjusted downwards its projections for the world economy, affected by the energy shock derived from the conflict with Iran. However, the rise of investment in artificial intelligence and other technologies partially offsets the impact.
The organization expects the global economy to grow just 3% in 2026, compared to 3.5% the previous year and the 3.1% estimated in April. By 2027, the IMF expects a rebound to 3.4%.
Effects of the conflict in Iran
After the military actions of the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28, Tehran interrupted transit through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and natural gas circulates. Energy prices skyrocketed, putting pressure on companies and consumers. The IMF now expects oil to rise almost 32% this year and global inflation to reach 4.7% in 2026, up from 4.1% in 2025, halting two years of anti-inflationary progress.
These forecasts assume that the strait will reopen this month and that trade will normalize by March, although the White House declared on Wednesday that the ceasefire with Iran was over.
Regional overview
“The global economy has weathered the shock better than feared,” said Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director of the IMF’s research department. The damage was limited because countries used oil reserves and exporters outside the Persian Gulf increased production.
The United States, which produces its own energy and benefits from investment in AI, will grow 2.3% this year, up from 2.1% in 2025. Trump’s tax cuts, productivity improvements and a strong stock market sustain its economy. In contrast, the eurozone — hit by high energy prices — will grow just 0.9%, compared to 1.4% in 2025.
China will expand 4.6% this year, less than the previous 5%, but driven by public works, high-tech manufacturing and exports, despite the real estate collapse. India will continue to be the fastest growing large economy, at 6.4%, supported by strong consumption.
The IMF, a credit organization for 191 countries, seeks to promote growth and global financial stability.




