The stock market waits, oil dances
The US market remained almost flat this Tuesday. A tense calm. Everyone on Wall Street is watching for one thing: the next signal about when the war with Iran might end.
The S&P 500 fell 0.2%. The Dow Jones lost 34 points. The Nasdaq barely rose. These are minimal movements after the tremendous swing that shook the stock markets on Monday, dragged down by the collapse of crude oil.
The key is in the strait
And why this chaos? Everything revolves around oil and a key geographical point: the Strait of Hormuz. A fifth of the world’s crude oil passes through there every day. The war has largely blocked it, and that has caused prices to skyrocket… and then crash.
A barrel of Brent closed at $87.80. That is 11.3% less than the previous day. Most of that drop occurred on Monday afternoon, after Donald Trump gave an interview to CBS News.
“I think the war is very complete, practically,” Trump said.
Those words made the markets jump with joy. Hope for a quick end to the conflict would mean that oil would once again flow freely from the Middle East. Prices plummeted from almost $120.
But then, things got complicated. Trump later posted on his social network:
“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER.”
And to top it all off, an Iranian spokesman made it clear who’s in charge: “Iran will determine when the war ends.” On Tuesday, Tehran launched new attacks against Israel and Gulf countries.
Uncertainty is total. And in financial markets, uncertainty is the worst thing that can happen.
Neuberger Berman’s Hakan Kaya sums it up perfectly:
“The outlook for oil right now is as binary as it gets. Either the Strait of Hormuz reopens… or it remains closed and we are looking at the biggest supply disruption in modern history.”
What really matters: your pocket
Here we leave geopolitics and move on to the real economy. If oil prices remain high for too long, the consequences are serious.
Family budgets, already choked by inflation, could be broken. Companies would see their fuel and logistics costs skyrocket. It is the perfect recipe for the worst possible scenario: stagflation. Stagnant economic growth and high inflation at the same time.
History says that the US stock market recovers quickly from conflicts… as long as crude oil doesn’t stay expensive for too long. The question is whether this time it will be the same.
Meanwhile, other parts of the world reacted with more euphoria to Trump’s opening words. Asian and European stock markets rose strongly at their first opportunity: +5.3% in South Korea, +2.2% in Hong Kong.
On Wall Street there were particular movements: Vertex Pharmaceuticals soared 8.3% after good news about a kidney treatment. West Pharmaceutical Services fell 5.7% after announcing the departure of its CEO.
At the end of the day, everything is still hanging by a thread… or rather, a narrow thread.




