A respite for the Mexican economy
While the screens show images of tension and the price of a barrel of crude oil exceeds $100, an analysis comes from the office of the chief economist of BBVA Mexico that seeks to calm the waters. Carlos Serrano puts his feet on the ground with a clear forecast: this chapter of instability will have a limited duration and its effects on our economy will be limited.
“It is most likely that tensions between the United States and Iran will remain only for a few weeks, without permanently affecting the energy markets,” explained Serrano.
His argument is like watching the storm from a safe haven. Yes, there will be waves, but they will pass. The bank projects that as production and this vital flow through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, prices will tend to stabilize during the second quarter of the year.
Where will we feel the blow?
Here is the crux of the matter. The main impacts would be reflected on two very specific fronts: temporary adjustments in energy prices and in tax collection linked to fuels. Nothing that alters the fundamental direction of the country’s economic growth, according to his vision.
It is as if the most volatile geopolitical scenario in the world threw a stone into the pond. Mexico, from this shore, will only see slight waves that will dissipate soon. The analysis suggests that, although the current conflict triggered the numbers, the situation will stabilize allowing a recovery without lasting consequences.
For a family economy like mine, with a teacher wife and two daughters who fill the tank from time to time, this forecast is a sigh of relief. It means that international theater, no matter how dramatic, is not going to rewrite our domestic budget. At least not this time.
