Impact of the new US tariff policy
US President Donald Trump has signed an executive proclamation increasing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%, a measure that will take effect on June 4. This decision specifically excludes the United Kingdom, whose shipments will maintain the current rate. The stated goal is to protect the local metals industry from what the administration calls “unfair competition” from foreign producers who, according to Trump, saturate the market with low-cost products.
Context and economic justification
The measure is part of the protectionist policy that Trump has promoted since his first term, centered on the motto “America First”. According to data from the Department of Commerce, steel and aluminum imports represent approximately 15% of total consumption in the US, with China, Mexico and Canada as the main suppliers. The key argument is that global overproduction—especially in China—has depressed prices, hurting the profitability of U.S. steel mills. However, independent analysts question the effectiveness of the tariffs: a report from the Peterson Institute for International Economics indicates that, since 2018, these measures have saved just 3,200 jobs in the sector, at an estimated cost of $900,000 per position.
Consequences for Mexico
Mexico exports around $3.5 billion in steel and aluminum to the US annually, which is equivalent to 2.1% of its total sales to the country. Although the percentage seems modest, the Mexican industry will face an immediate challenge: according to projections from the Bank of Mexico, the volume of exports could contract by up to 4% in 2025. Companies such as Ternium and DeAcero, which concentrate 60% of shipments, are already evaluating strategies to diversify markets. The Mexican Ministry of Economy has avoided making an official statement, but internal sources reveal that selective retaliation is being analyzed within the framework of the T-MEC.
Reactions and future scenarios
The International Chamber of Commerce has described the increase as “a step backwards in economic integration”, while the European Union is considering challenging the measure before the WTO. For Mexico, the most likely scenario includes bilateral negotiations, although experts warn that any retaliation could escalate tensions in key sectors such as the automotive industry. A revealing fact: 78% of Mexican companies linked to these metals do not have contingency plans for tariff fluctuations, according to a CANACERO survey.
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