El Niño forecast for 2026: what to expect in Mexico?
According to the June forecast of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States (NOAA), there is a greater than 95% probability that the El Niño phenomenon will occur during the second half of 2026. The researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Change at UNAM, Jorge Zavala Hidalgo, reported that the intensity could be between strong or very strong.
“Although the probability of occurrence is high, uncertainty persists about its final intensity,” said the specialist.
El Niño is an anomalous warming of the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Its opposite phase, La Niña, brings different conditions.
Effects on the country’s climate
Starting in July 2026, a decrease in precipitation compared to the historical average is expected. The rains typical of the season will continue, but with less intensity. This pattern would continue until spring 2027 in the center, south and Yucatán Peninsula. In the northwest, especially Baja California, above-average rainfall usually occurs during the first months of the year.
The relationship between temperature and precipitation is direct: less rain means higher temperatures. In 2024, for example, low rainfall was accompanied by record temperatures.
Additional risks
The combination of high temperatures and low humidity increases the risk of forest fires. Zavala Hidalgo recommended being attentive between February and May, when these conditions are usually more critical. Fires, in turn, worsen air quality by increasing particles and compounds that promote the formation of ozone.
He also warned that the heat accumulated in the equatorial Pacific moves towards the Mexican coasts, increasing the oceanic heat content. This can accelerate the intensification of hurricanes to categories 3, 4 or 5, although he clarified that it is not enough on its own to guarantee their formation.
