Analysis of the Meteorological Event: Cold Front Number 16
The Cold Front Number 16 continues its trajectory this Friday, November 27, significantly influencing the atmospheric conditions of the southern Gulf of Mexico and the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. This meteorological phenomenon generates a cold to very cold environment that extends through the northern, northeastern, eastern and central regions of the national territory, accompanied by strong winds and probable precipitation in various states. The interaction of this frontal system with a low pressure channel in the east and southeast of the country, documented by the National Meteorological Service (SMN), constitutes the main mechanism that generates rain, particularly in entities such as Hidalgo, Puebla, Veracruz and Oaxaca.
Forecast of Minimum Temperatures and Thermal Records
During the early hours of Thursday, freezing temperatures are expected with minimum values that will range between -10 and -5 °C in the mountainous areas of Chihuahua and Durango. Records of -5 to 0 °C are estimated in the mountains of Baja California, Sonora, Zacatecas, State of Mexico, Tlaxcala and Puebla. At the same time, temperatures of 0 to 5 °C are forecast in mountain areas of Coahuila, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Michoacán, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Veracruz and Oaxaca. This thermal decrease responds to the incursion of a polar air mass directly associated with the frontal system, whose dynamics favor the establishment of a winter weather pattern.
Wind and Wave Conditions on Coasts
The SMN has detailed that the aforementioned polar air mass will generate a “North” event with significant gusts of wind and high waves in various coastal areas. For the isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec, in the states of Oaxaca and Chiapas, winds with speeds of 70 to 90 km/h and waves of 2 to 3 meters high are anticipated. On the coast of Veracruz, winds of 50 to 70 km/h with waves of 1.5 to 2.5 meters are expected. For the coasts of Tamaulipas, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán and the north of Quintana Roo, winds of 40 to 60 km/h and waves of 1.0 to 2.0 meters are forecast. Additionally, winds of 15 to 25 km/h with gusts of 30 to 50 km/h are expected in inland states such as Coahuila, Nuevo León, Zacatecas, San Luis Potosí, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Puebla, Tlaxcala, State of Mexico and Mexico City.
Precipitation Forecast and Associated Hazards
The entry of moisture from both the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico will cause rains and intervals of showers in the northeast, center, south and west of the national territory. The agency dependent on the National Water Commission (Conagua) has specified the distribution and intensity of the expected rainfall. Very heavy rains are forecast, with occasional intense rains in Hidalgo (Sierra Alta, Huasteca and Sierra de Tenango); Puebla (Sierra Norte, Sierra Nororiental and Valle Serdán); Veracruz (Huasteca Alta, Huasteca Baja, Totonaca, Nautla, Papaloapan, Los Tuxtlas and Olmeca); and in the north of Oaxaca.
Heavy rains are expected with very strong spells in the Tehuacán-Sierra Negra region of Puebla, in the Capital and Sotavento regions of Veracruz, the west of Tabasco and Chiapas. Showers with occasional heavy rains are also expected in San Luis Potosí, Querétaro and Veracruz. For Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Guanajuato, State of Mexico, Mexico City, Tlaxcala, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo, the possibility of some intervals of showers was reported. In Coahuila, Michoacán, Guerrero and Morelos some isolated rains are forecast.
It is crucial to highlight that heavy, very strong and intense rains may be accompanied by electrical activity (electric shocks). These precipitation events can cause a sudden increase in the levels of rivers and streams, as well as landslides, severe flooding and flooding in topographically low and highly vulnerable areas. The population in the mentioned regions must stay informed through official channels and follow the recommendations of the Civil Protection authorities.
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