The pressure of crime and the Salvadoran example
The progressive governments of the region are at a crossroads. Their voters demand results against insecurity, while a speech from the United States presses for tougher actions. In this context, President Nayib Bukele’s formula in El Salvador has become a political magnet.
Its frontal war against gangs, with more than 90,000 arrests since 2022, managed to reduce homicides drastically. That tangible success is what other leaders are now seeing, even as human rights criticism runs high.
Guatemala: the last to declare an emergency
President Bernardo Arévalo has just announced a state of emergency after a violent attack where ten police officers died. The measure suspends constitutional guarantees such as free movement and the right to assembly.
“The actions seek to control the situation and restore peace,” explained the Guatemalan government.
It is an almost exact replica of the Bukelista manual: immediate and forceful response to outbreaks of violence, even if that means restricting fundamental freedoms. Mexico and Colombia have also taken note.
Here is the pattern that worries me: each crisis becomes a justification for exceptional measures. And the exceptional, over time, becomes normalized. Families want security for their children, of course. But at what long-term cost for democracies?
The shadow of Trump and his “heavy-handed” rhetoric influences, but the real driving force is internal. People are fed up. The leaders, caught between promises of social welfare and urgent demands for public order, opt for the visible: more operations, more arrests.
The problem is that this formula does not address the root causes. It dismantles criminal structures today, but does not invest in young people who could be recruited tomorrow. It is a short-term solution with consequences that we still do not fully understand.
As a mother, I understand the fear. As a journalist who has seen cycles repeat themselves, I fear we are trading freedoms for a fragile peace. The Bukele model is expanding, but its final legacy has yet to be written.
