A two-party T-MEC?
The American Society Mexico issued a warning that will make more than one think. His thesis: the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada could cease to be trilateral and become primarily an issue between Mexico and the United States.
The weight of commercial exchange between these two neighbors would be the driving force behind this change. But how real is this scenario?
“There is a probability close to 40% that this change will occur,” estimated Larry Rubin, president of the organization.
There is the data. Almost 40% probability. But Rubin, as a good connoisseur of the system, immediately put his feet on the ground.
He acknowledged that the political and legislative processes necessary to modify the agreement make it unfeasible for this to happen soon. Bureaucracy and politics, as always, stopping any rapid change in its tracks.
Priorities found
The US government has its sights set on other fronts. Conflicts in the Middle East monopolize its international agenda, leaving a possible reconfiguration of the T-MEC on the back burner.
Meanwhile, in the bilateral relationship there are hot issues on the table. Rubin highlighted two especially sensitive ones: regional security and openness to greater private investment in energy.
This last point is crucial. The uncertainty surrounding political reforms in Mexico generates doubts among those who put in the money. Investors look askance when the rules of the game seem to move.
Despite everything, Amsoc’s official position is clear: it is best to maintain the trilateral nature of the treaty. Although they recognize an undeniable fact.
Mexico’s economic relevance has strengthened direct dialogue with the United States. That is already a reality. A strategic relationship that is consolidated day by day, with or without formal changes in the T-MEC.
The energy sector will continue to be a thermometer of this relationship. Decisions on private investment there could tip the balance in future negotiations.
For now, the treaty remains three. But the conversation about whether it could be two is already on the table.
In addition to promoting recreation and sports, the activity represents an important economic benefit for service providers, local businesses and entrepreneurs, who benefit from the arrival of visitors during the development of the event.