The threat that crosses the red line
Donald Trump just upped the ante on the conflict with Iran in a way that makes even the most cynical observers frown. In a social media post, the US president threatened to annihilate critical Iranian infrastructure, including desalination plants, if an agreement is not reached soon.
“If a deal is not reached ‘soon’… the United States would expand its offensive by ‘completely wiping out’ power plants, oil wells, Kharg Island and possibly even desalination plants,” Trump said.
Here’s the problem: attacking civilian targets that provide drinking water could constitute a war crime. Legal experts point out that the laws of conflict only allow such attacks if the military advantage clearly outweighs the harm to the population. It is a very high threshold.
A war that expands while it is spoken
While Trump assures that diplomacy ‘is going well’, the reality on the ground is different. This week we have seen:
- Iran attacking a water and electricity plant in Kuwait, killing a worker.
- Missiles over Dubai and Saudi Arabia.
- A new wave of Israeli attacks against Tehran.
- An Iranian ballistic missile intercepted over Türkiye.
The paradox is that all this is happening while Trump insists that he is negotiating with Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, president of the Iranian Parliament. But Tehran flatly denies it. Qalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guard commander, dismissed the talks as a cover to justify more US troops in the region.
“Iranian forces were ‘waiting for the arrival of US troops on the ground to set them on fire,'” Qalibaf was quoted as saying by state media.
And there is a worrying precedent: Twice during this term, the United States has attacked Iran while in the middle of high-level diplomatic talks.
The human and economic cost skyrockets
In Lebanon, where Israel is fighting Hezbollah, three UN peacekeepers died in less than 24 hours. In Beirut, an Israeli strike killed one person and injured 17, including four children.
The balance so far is heartbreaking:
- Iran: more than 1,900 dead
- Israel: 19 deaths reported
- Lebanon: more than 1,200 dead and one million displaced
- Gulf and West Bank states: two dozen fatalities
But where we all feel the pinch is at the gas station. Brent crude oil was trading around $115 on Monday, almost 60% higher than when the war began. Iran has strangled the Strait of Hormuz – through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes – and continues to attack regional energy infrastructure.
Trump says Iran allowed 20 oil tankers through as ‘a sign of respect.’ No one can confirm whether those ships are actually moving. The only thing that is clear is that each threat, each attack, pushes peace further away and brings the world closer to a deep energy crisis.
The question now is not whether there will be escalation, but how much further can this escalate before someone crosses a line from which there is no return.
