The Omen of an Imminent Catastrophe
Twelve days ago, the sky over the Huasteca of Veracruz was torn by inconsolable tears. Near the majestic Cazones River, a region accustomed to humidity and the dance of its river currents, witnessed how the rainfall transformed into a disproportionate nightmare. What began as a whisper of rain became an incessant roar, a deluge that defied all logic and preparation. On Friday, October 10, the river, enraged, broke its chains, rising about four meters above its usual level in a brutal demonstration of force that took with it dreams, vehicles and human lives. The ravages of that fateful day continue to resonate with bitter intensity.
The National Water Commission had launched its warning from the shadows of the month of August, projecting intense rainfall that would reach the terrifying figure of 400 millimeters. This projection was not a simple fact; It was an omen that surpassed all recent records of Poza Rica. Collective memory revived the ghost of October 2007, when the accumulation of more than 300 millimeters unleashed a flood of mud and debris, forcing the eviction of hundreds of families. For years, residents clamored for changes to infrastructure, their voices forming a chorus of pleas that, in 2019, were answered with a promise that, once again, vanished into thin air. History, implacable, was about to repeat itself.
An Ignored Danger Map
The previous year, the collector had recorded a rain of 96.3 millimeters during the passage of a storm, an event that had already set off alarms among the citizens of Veracruz. The ancestral fear of the river overflowing and the forced evacuation of their homes took hold of the families. The authorities, in response, solemnly affirmed that they knew the risk map of the territory and promised to act accordingly. To put the magnitude in perspective, during the June 2024 rainy season in Mexico City, a record was set with 211.6 mm of water falling. That figure, which paralyzed a metropolis, was barely half of what was projected for the most affected areas of Veracruz, Puebla and Hidalgo!
The result of this climatic fury has been a human tragedy of Dantesque proportions: 76 confirmed deaths and at least 27 souls that fate has not yet returned, considered as not located. Nearly 39,000 homes exhibit structural wounds in different degrees, a landscape of devastation that eclipses even the shadow of Hurricane Otis, whose surprise passage through the national territory claimed 68 lives and left 31 missing. Official calculations predicted that the region would exceed regular rainfall by 75%, placing it as one of the few points on the map with such extreme anomalies, along with the south of Veracruz, Chiapas and Querétaro.
The evidence was there, recorded in the risk map that compiled data until 2023. This crucial document, a modern oracle, already projected that the points that are today epicenters of population suffering were at severe risk of damage. The so-called “flood-susceptible areas”, meticulously identified by the National Civil Protection Coordination, the National Disaster Prevention Center and the Government of Veracruz, pointed an accusing finger at the surroundings of the Cazones River and the area near Álamo and the border with the State of Puebla. Since 2024, the Secretary of Civil Protection, Guadalupe Osorno, had warned that landslides could occur in the mountain areas of Veracruz. Knowledge of the vulnerability existed; forceful action to neutralize it, no.
This is not just the chronicle of a natural disaster; It is the epic story of a tragedy foretold, where the indomitable force of nature collided with the fragility of prevention systems. A dramatic lesson in the consequences of underestimating climate warnings.
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