The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts a rapid evolution of the El Niño phenomenon towards a strong episode between July and September 2026. This will increase the probability of extreme events such as heat waves, droughts and intense rains in several regions of the world.
What implications does it have for Mexico?
The WMO monthly bulletin indicates that El Niño will continue to strengthen during the northern hemisphere autumn, extending its influence to many areas. In the equatorial Atlantic, temperatures will remain above average.
“We are already observing conditions typical of an El Niño episode, and they are expected to intensify until they become a strong episode,” warned Celeste Saulo, Secretary General of the WMO.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) explains that El Niño occurs when temperatures in the tropical Pacific rise more than normal. The name, used by Peruvian fishermen, arose because the warming of the sea coincided with Christmas, affecting fishing.
Experts foresee uneven but clear impacts for Mexico:
- Increase in extreme rains in the central-north.
- Increased risk of intense hurricanes in the Pacific.
- Possible periods of drought in some regions.
- High risks for agriculture, water and security.
- Intensification of forest fires and effects on fishing.
The WMO insists that the international community must prepare for these events, as the probabilities of extreme events increase significantly in the coming months.




