Analysis of Sheinbaum’s position towards the IMF
The president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, has categorically rejected the projections of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which anticipate an increase in the country’s gross public debt, going from 19.8 trillion pesos in 2024 to 28.9 trillion by 2030. During a public event in Progreso, Yucatán, the president argued that these estimates do not consider the structural changes driven by the so-called Fourth Transformation, a political project that, according to her, has eradicated corrupt practices and redistributed resources more equitably.
Economic context and divergences with the IMF
The IMF, in its report World Economic Outlook (WEO), analyzes the fiscal situation of 190 nations. For Mexico, the agency projects an increase of approximately 9 trillion pesos in its debt over the next six years. However, Sheinbaum maintains that these projections ignore the impact of the reforms implemented under her administration, which — according to her — have strengthened the national economy. “The people’s resources are returned to the people,” he stated, emphasizing management aimed at prioritizing the most vulnerable sectors.
This disagreement reflects a recurring tension between international financial organizations and governments that promote alternative economic models. While the IMF bases its forecasts on traditional macroeconomic indicators, Sheinbaum insists that variables such as the reduction of corruption and social investment are not being adequately weighted.
Political support in Yucatán and leadership projection
During his tour of Yucatán, Sheinbaum publicly supported Governor Joaquín Díaz Mena, a member of his party, calling him “a great leader who demonstrates the potential of the region.” He highlighted his work in rural municipalities and compared him with historical figures such as Felipe Carrillo Puerto, which suggests a strategy to consolidate political alliances in the southeast of the country.
This support not only strengthens Díaz Mena’s image among local voters, but also reinforces the discourse of the Fourth Transformation as a movement rooted in the communities. The president reiterated that her government operates under the principle of “the poor first”, a slogan that seeks to differentiate her administration from previous ones.
Implications and future perspectives
The debate on public debt transcends the technical: it involves opposing visions about the role of the State and the redistribution of resources. Sheinbaum is confident that his model—focused on infrastructure works such as the Mayan Train—will generate sustainable growth, while the IMF warns of fiscal risks. Independent analysts point out that the real challenge will be to balance social investment with financial discipline to avoid inflationary pressures.
What follows will be key. If current policies manage to stimulate productivity without increasing debt, Mexico could validate its position before global organizations. Otherwise, the IMF’s criticisms would gain relevance.
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Source: El Universal (referential image)
