Decrease of 42% in homicides? The worrying figures behind the headline
President Claudia Sheinbaum came out to show off numbers. From September 2024 to last January, he says, intentional homicides fell 42%. “There are 36 fewer homicides a day,” he highlighted. Sounds good, right? He is the type of headline that any government wants.
Marcela Figueroa Franco, from the National Public Security System (SESNSP), confirmed it in the morning. He spoke of a “sustained downward trend.” He also mentioned that extortion fell by 38%. And other high-impact crimes, such as violent vehicle theft, decreased by 39%.
The devil, as always, is in the details
But let’s break this down. First, the period. They compare from September 2024. That is, they take the most violent month of last year as a starting point to measure the improvement. Convenient.
Second, concentration. Seven states account for more than half of all murders in the country: Guanajuato, Baja California, Chihuahua, State of Mexico, Sinaloa, Morelos and Guerrero. That seven entities concentrate 50.6% of the problem is not exactly a distributed national victory.
“This is a 65% decrease in the daily average of homicides,” said Figueroa Franco about Guanajuato.
It is true that some states such as Zacatecas or San Luis Potosí show spectacular drops (more than 80%). But when the core of the problem remains the same, one wonders if we are not just redistributing the numbers or postponing the problem.
Sheinbaum attributed the improvement to a “consolidated” National Guard, more intelligence and better coordination. The usual.
“Obviously attention to the causes has been reinforced,” he said.
That phrase is a classic. It sounds good, but it’s intangible. What causes? As? Hard data on social investment or prevention are conspicuous by their absence in this triumphalist announcement.
Celebrating a downward trend is fine. But with this background and this geography of crime, skepticism is not only journalistic; It’s common sense. That the numbers drop from a historical peak is not the same as having solved the problem.




