The art of showing off numbers that (almost) everyone understands
It seems like it was yesterday, but a year has already passed. President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, in her now traditional morning communication space —because what better way to start the day than with a bit of criminal statistics—, has come out to boast a figure that, we are not going to fool ourselves, sounds pretty good: a 32 percent reduction in intentional homicides. Yes, you read that right. A third less murders. Or, in the moving language of the head of the Executive, “27 people who do not die daily.” Such a quirky and comforting way to measure success, don’t you think? As if every dawn, a small group of people randomly selected by fate received a cosmic reprieve.
“Imagine, 27 homicides less per day“, he exclaimed with visible enthusiasm during the conference “Las mañaneras del pueblo.” He then proceeded to a masterful communication lesson: “…but let’s say the number of 32 percent is perhaps not as indicative as saying that every day there are 27 less intentional homicides.” Because, of course, a percentage is something abstract, cold and distant, while imagining 27 corpses that are not there is… well, much more welcoming. A very significant reduction, he described it. Evidently, he promised to continue working. Just in case someone thought that with 27 souls saved per day the job was done.
The magic recipe: four axes and a lot of hope
And to what does the administration attribute such an achievement? Well, as it could not be otherwise, to a National Security Strategy perfectly structured in four pillars. Because in modern politics, if you don’t have a strategy with axes, what do you really have? The first is the always vague but hopeful Attention to Causes. Sounds good, right? Attack the root problem. What a shame that these “causes” tend to be as elusive and complex as defining the meaning of life.
Then comes the strengthening of the National Guard, which now resides under the command of the Ministry of National Defense. Because nothing says “civil force” like being under the wing of the military. This strengthening, we are told, allowed the creation of the National Research and Intelligence System. A name so great that it almost seems like something out of a spy movie. This system, in theory, collaborates with state prosecutors’ offices to achieve “better investigation files.” Or what is the same: that the papers are better organized before the generators of violence are supposedly arrested. A process so efficient that we could almost forget that impunity in the country is at stratospheric levels.
And in case anyone doubted it, the president did not miss the opportunity to wink at her predecessor and mentor. He recognized – with a modesty that honors him – that the work carried out during the six-year term of former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador paved the way. It turns out that intentional homicides were already showing a downward trend since 2019, after stabilizing in previous years. A subtle way of saying: “The wave was already receding, I just got on the surfboard at the right time.” In contrast, he did not fail to point out that in the six-year terms of Felipe Calderón and Enrique Peña Nieto the growth was “exponential.” Because in politics, everything is relative and the important thing is to choose well who you compare yourself to.
When the numbers sing (the song you want to hear)
For lovers of hard data—those strange beings who believe that numbers don’t lie—, the head of the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System, Marcela Figueroa Franco, broke down the statistical magic. The 32 percent reduction materializes by going from 86.9 daily homicides in September 2024 to 59.5 in September 2025. That is, the most peaceful September since 2015. And the period from January to September 2025 is, apparently, the lowest in nine years. It almost makes you want to take out the flag and organize a parade. But wait, 59.5 homicides a day is still almost 60 people violently killed every 24 hours? The details, always the details, ruin the party.
The horror map, however, has not changed that much. Seven entities account for 51 percent of intentional homicides. Guanajuato leads with 11.3%, followed by Chihuahua (7.4%) and Baja California (7.3%). It seems that some states are reluctant to enter the narrative of widespread improvement. However, to maintain optimism, we are informed that 23 states did reduce their daily average. Zacatecas did so by a spectacular 88%, Chiapas by 73% and Quintana Roo by 68%. Figures that, without a doubt, are to be congratulated, although one cannot help but wonder what the previous situation was for such brutal reductions to be possible. Were they on the brink of absolute collapse?
But security is not just homicides. They present us with a cocktail of achievements: vehicle theft with violence was reduced by 48% and transporter theft with violence was reduced by 55%. And the jewel in the crown: the National Strategy against Extortion achieved an incredible 85% increase in complaints to number 089. Because, in the upside-down world of fighting crime, sometimes success is measured not by the absence of crime, but by the increase in the number of people who dare to report it. A novel perspective, without a doubt.
The show must go on: weapons, drugs and patriotic celebrations
The Secretary of Security, Omar García Harfuch, contributed his dose of numerical spectacle: 34,690 detainees, 17,283 high-caliber weapons seized, 283.5 tons of drugs seized (including more than 3 million fentanyl pills, enough to keep a small nation awake) and 1,564 clandestine laboratories dismantled. Figures that sound like an epic war, although one wonders if it would not be more effective to attack the consumer market than the production market. But that would sound less impressive at the press conference.
On the extortion front, the figures are equally eloquent: 386 extortionists arrested and 59,283 calls to 089. Of these, 74% were “unconsummated extortions.” That is, people who received a call but did not pay. Does that count as a success of the strategy or as an indicator that people no longer believe the extortionists’ stories? 16% were reports of suspicious numbers, and only 10% were extortions where the victim lost money. A fact that, looked at optimistically, suggests that the majority of people are smarter than criminals. Or, looked at pessimistically, that criminals are so inefficient that they are not even good for extortion.
And then there is the fourth pillar, the most ethereal and photogenic: Attention to Causes. This is where the security strategy merges with the civic celebration. The Secretary of the Interior, Rosa Icela Rodríguez, informed us of 162 patriotic celebrations with 55,522 children and young people participating. Because nothing combats organized crime like a good parade and chanting “Long live Mexico!” 144 Women’s Services Fairs, 5,586 Peace Days were held and 179,700 homes were visited. The number of services provided amounts to 3,795 million. One can almost visualize the army of officials handing out leaflets and smiles. And, in a surreal twist, the “Yes to Disarmament, Yes to Peace” program exchanged 6,420 firearms (almost 4,000 of them “long”, a euphemism for assault rifles) and 5,821 war toys for educational ones. Because, at the end of the day, the boy who trades his water gun for a Rubik’s cube is clearly on the path of nonviolence.
In the end, the message is clear: the situation is improving. The numbers go down. The strategy works. And one, as a citizen, is left with a bittersweet taste. On the one hand, any reduction in violence is welcome. Celebrating that there are 27 fewer deaths per day is, objectively, better than not celebrating at all. But on the other, the feeling that we are being asked to toast because the fire is now burning a little less, instead of being out, is difficult to ignore. The current government has inherited a brutally violent country and any progress, no matter how small, is significant. The real challenge will be to sustain this trend and demonstrate that it is not a statistical mirage or the fruit of a temporary truce between criminal groups. Time, and the figures of the coming months, will have the last word.
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