Pemex and its (almost impossible) gas mission by 2035
It turns out that our beloved and troubled oil company, Pemex, has a plan. One of those plans that sound so ambitious that it almost makes others feel sorry, like when your uncle says he’s going to start the gym on Monday. According to the brainiacs at Wood Mackenzie, for the parastatal to reach its goal of natural gas production for 2035 (how far away that seems!), it needs nothing more and nothing less than investing a whopping 10 billion dollars and drilling 200 wells a year. Yes, you read that right: ten billion. That is as if each and every one of us Mexicans contributed about 80 dollars to the cause. Does anyone have their piggy bank on hand?
The plan: Start with the easy (or the least difficult)
In a move that shows that at least someone in there has a clue, the company will begin its epic journey by focusing on 21 deposits, most of them in conventional fields. Basically, they are starting with the easy level of the video game before moving on to the final boss. Diego Alviso, Wood Mackenzie’s Research Manager, enlightened us with his knowledge: this first step will give them about 500 thousand cubic feet per day of gas in the next two or three years. Not bad to warm up engines.
But, surprise, not everything will be so simple. Alviso dropped the bomb: “There are a couple of fields… that may be unconventional.” That’s where things get interesting, like Agua Fría, Miahuatlán and Miquetla. It sounds like names of magical towns, but in reality they are the settings where Pemex will attempt its most risky feat. And if that were not enough, the analyst mentioned that there are two entire regions envisioned for this high-risk development: the Burgos Basin (between Piedras Negras and Nuevo Laredo) and northern Veracruz. Get ready for a few “I told you so” in the future.
The harsh reality: Outside help is needed (and a lot of it)
Here comes the part where reality slaps aspirations. What Pemex has now is, to put it mildly, a nice test. A short-term production of about 100 thousand cubic feet per day. To reach the goal of 5 billion, they need long-term projects in these fearsome unconventional deposits. And for that, they need something they don’t have: expertise and technology.
Marcos Bernabé, another analyst from the consulting firm, enters the scene to say what we were all thinking: Pemex should partner with American companies. They need to call the professionals, the ones who have been in the trenches of fracking and know what they are talking about. Names like Halliburton, Schlumberger, Weatherford and Chevron were mentioned. Basically, the major league. “They are companies that have developed innovative technology that is more efficient and environmentally friendly,” he commented. In other words, they need to have the answers to the exam passed to them.
And here is the plot twist that no one expected: the analysts agreed that the 10 billion dollars of investment required would have to come mainly from private initiative. Has anyone heard the same old song? Pemex, with its history of debt and questionable management, asking for a financial ride. The most hardcore projects, the unconventional ones, probably won’t even take off until around 2030. By then, we may already have flying cars.
The conclusion, with a touch of cautious optimism, was given by Alviso: “The important thing is that Pemex is considering unconventional fields, where it has great potential.” And best of all, with the possibility that they will not be the famous mixed contracts, but “other types of contracts”. In other words, they are willing to be creative as long as someone lends them a hand. A collaborative effort to save the country’s energy future. Sounds good, I hope it’s not another guajiro dream.
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