The unexpected turn of the trade war
In a plot twist that not even the most creative scriptwriter of a streaming series would have dared to write, it turns out that the great beneficiary of the tariffs with which Donald Trump wants to “make America great again” is… his neighbor to the south. Yes, Mexico. The *Wall Street Journal*, that financial bible that guys in suits read, just released a report that is basically an “Always has been” meme applied to geopolitics. It turns out that, while the world was tearing its clothes, Mexican exports have been experiencing their best era, a type of protagonist in an economic *coming-of-age*.
The joke tells itself: thanks to the USMCA (that treaty that has us all checking rules of origin as if they were the terms and conditions of an app), almost 85% of what we sell to the north crosses the border without paying extra toll. While tariffs are raining down on Chinese products as if they were *haters* in a controversial tweet, the effective tariff rate for Mexico is a chilling 4.7%, compared to the dramatic 37.1% that China suffers. It’s the difference between paying for specialty coffee and a mortgage. This disparity has made *made in Mexico* products fill the void left by Asian products, positioning us as the perfect commercial *rebound* for the United States.
Figures that speak more than a speech
And how has it been for us? Well, to avoid spoilers, pretty good. Despite specific (and very high) tariffs on cars, steel and aluminum, Mexican manufacturing exports to the US increased almost 9% from January to November of this year. The automotive sector, it is true, stumbled with a drop of 6%, but other manufactured products took off with a growth of 17%. In other words, if the car doesn’t pull, we bring in everything else: from appliances to industrial components. Diversification is key, like having more than one *side hustle*.
The total volume of trade in goods is on track to break an all-time record: almost $900 billion this year. A figure that sounds like seeing zeros in an *influencer*’s bank account. Of course, not everything is smooth sailing. Mexico still faces the highest tariffs in a generation for certain products, showing that this relationship is complex, like any modern situation. But the recognition comes from the mouth of the US trade representative himself, Jamieson Greer, who admitted that Mexico has captured around 25% of the reduction in the trade deficit that the US had with China. Basically, we become the supporting actor who steals the movie in the supply chain resilience storyline.
In short, in the midst of global chaos, Mexico found its *niche*. It’s not like we’ve solved all of our structural problems (that would be another chapter), but at least in this *season finale* of the trade war, our character ended up in an unexpectedly favorable position. The lesson: sometimes, being in the right place, with the right treaty and the right costs, can be the game-changer no one saw coming.
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