Geopolitical context and retaliatory measures
Following the attacks directed by the United States against the nuclear facilities of Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan in Iran, the Iranian Parliament has approved a measure with strong international repercussions: the provisional closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This decision, pending ratification by the Supreme National Security Council, represents an escalation in bilateral tension. General Esmaeil Kousari, the military’s top commander, warned that retaliation will not be limited to symbolic actions: “The military response is only one component of our comprehensive strategy,” he declared, hinting at additional economic and diplomatic measures.
Strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz
This sea lane, barely 55 km wide, is the critical corridor for the transportation of hydrocarbons on a global scale. According to data from the International Energy Agency, 20% of oil and 30% of natural gas sold worldwide pass through this step, with daily exports exceeding 20 million barrels from countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iran. Although geographically shared with Oman, operational control falls to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, giving Tehran veto power over energy flows.
Economic impact and international reactions
A prolonged blockade would trigger an energy crisis with immediate effects: sharp increases in crude oil prices, shortages in dependent markets and inflationary pressures. Warren Patterson, an analyst at ING Research, projects that a severe interruption would raise prices to $120 per barrel, impacting emerging economies and powers such as China, the main importer of Iranian crude oil. The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, publicly urged Beijing to mediate: “Their dependence on the Strait makes them a key actor in avoiding an economic catastrophe.”
Future scenarios and conclusions
Experts in energy security point out that, beyond the immediate risk, this episode shows the systemic vulnerability of global supply chains. Alternatives such as the Suez Canal or land routes would not compensate for the deficit, while strategic reserves from Western countries would only mitigate the impact in the short term. The situation underlines the need to diversify energy sources and accelerate transitions towards renewables, even if this requires decades of investment.
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