Iranian pressure is felt from Manama to the markets
The attacks are no longer just against Israel. This Tuesday, Iranian missiles and drones reached Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the Arab Emirates. In Manama, a woman died. In Ruwais, petrochemical plants burned. Sirens also sounded in Jerusalem.
Meanwhile, from the Pentagon, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth promised that this would be “our most intense day of attacks inside Iran.” General Dan Caine said they have hit more than 5,000 targets, including Iran’s missile launch capabilities.
“We are definitely not looking for a ceasefire,” the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, wrote defiantly on social media. “The aggressor must be punched in the mouth.”
The real objective: strangle the world’s oil
Iran is going further. Their clear strategy is to hit where it hurts: the global economy. By attacking energy infrastructure and, crucially, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, it seeks to generate a crisis that forces the US and Israel to stop.
Brent touched $120 this week. Now it is around 90, but it is 24% more expensive than before the war. Amin Nasser, head of Saudi oil company Aramco, put it bluntly: ships are being diverted and if this lasts, “it will have a serious impact on the global economy.”
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard redoubled the bet: “it will not allow the export of a single liter of oil… until further notice.” Trump responded with a veiled threat on social media.
The human cracks of an expanding conflict
The war already has its collateral stories. Five Iranian footballers who were in Australia received political asylum. They didn’t sing the anthem before a game and now they won’t come home.
In Iraq, at least five militants from a pro-Iran brigade were killed in an airstrike in Kirkuk. Israel reiterated its warning to residents of southern Lebanon to evacuate.
Official figures speak of at least 1,230 deaths in Iran, 397 in Lebanon and 11 in Israel since February. Seven are US military personnel.
Netanyahu summed it up crudely during a meeting with Israeli health workers: “There is no doubt that… we are breaking their bones.” The question now is how much longer the skeleton of the global economy can hold out before breaking down.
