Formal employment is in ‘pause’ mode
We start 2026 and the formal labor market seems to have fallen asleep in the crib. According to the economic studies area of BBVA Mexico, in March employment affiliated with the IMSS barely grew by 0.04% seasonally adjusted per month. The translation? It is the worst March since 2010. In net numbers: only 32,930 jobs generated. And if we look at the first full quarter, the creation added 207,604 places, 8.4% less than last year.
“The formal labor market faces a limited growth environment at the beginning of 2026,” says the report.
Investment: the great absentee
The explanation is not mysterious: the investment is in ‘do not disturb’ mode. Gross fixed capital formation fell 2.2% annually in January, and business confidence has been 13 consecutive months below 50 points. In other words, nobody wants to risk their money.
Microbusinesses: the hardest hit
Business closures have become a silent epidemic. Since December 2022, 45,279 microbusinesses and 3,845 small businesses have disappeared. The causes? The minimum wage rises without productivity accompanying it, and weak demand does not help.
Sectors: some win, others lose
- Manufacturing: it has 15 consecutive months with annual falls (-2.1% in March).
- Trade: also in monthly decline.
- Agriculture: prolonged negative trend.
- Services: the lifeline of formal employment (grew 0.63% monthly and 1.9% annually).
- Construction: shows signs of monthly recovery, but still with annual red numbers.
Regionally: center vs periphery
While Mexico City and the State of Mexico shine with annual growth of 4.9% and 5.5%, respectively, the south-southeast continues to add significant falls. The north and Bajío are not for parties either.
What does all this tell us?
That we are seeing a labor market where real wages are still rising a little, but the wage bill is losing strength because there are not enough new formal jobs. Resilience is more illusion than reality when you depend only on salary to stay afloat.
