The Mexican southeast registers record economic fall in 2025

Three southeastern states face an alarming economic contraction, exceeding the national average.

Crushing economic collapse in the Mexican southeast

During the first quarter of 2025, the economies of Campeche, Tabasco and Quintana Roo experienced significant contractions, according to seasonally adjusted data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi). This phenomenon contrasts markedly with the slight growth of 0.20% recorded in the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during the same period.

Detailed analysis of quarterly results

The Quarterly Indicator of State Economic Activity (ITAEE) revealed worrying figures: Campeche led the fall with 6.44% less compared to the previous quarter, followed by Quintana Roo (-4.20%) and Tabasco (-2.71%). These percentages reflect an accelerated deterioration in key sectors such as hydrocarbons, tourism and commerce.

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In year-on-year comparison, the situation is worsening: Campeche accumulates 16 consecutive months of recession with a contraction of 16.76%, while Tabasco (-12.27%) and Quintana Roo (-9.24%) complete seven and five negative quarters respectively. Experts attribute this decline to:

  • Reduction in oil production
  • Lower international tourist influx
  • Contraction of public spending on infrastructure

National context and implications

While the national economy showed resilience with marginal growth (0.20%), the southeast region evidenced structural inequalities that require immediate intervention. The ITAEE highlights that these states concentrate 23% of the total economic decline of the country, despite representing only 8% of the population.

Analysts emphasize that dependence on volatile industries (energy and tourism) requires productive diversification. “These data are an alert to implement specific regional policies that reactivate strategic sectors,” said economist Javier Méndez in a recent report.

What’s next for the region? State authorities announced stimulus packages focused on:

  1. Port modernization
  2. Tax incentives for SMEs
  3. Job retraining programs

This scenario poses challenges for annual projections, where international organizations have already revised downward the expected growth for Mexico by 0.5 percentage points.

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Sheinbaum in Acapulco: Women’s Pension and goodbye to La Parota

President delivers cards to 70,000 Guerrero residents and cancels dam project.

President Claudia Sheinbaum visited Acapulco, Guerrero, to lead the delivery of cards from the Pensión Mujeres Bienestar program. This scheme grants 3,100 pesos every two months to Mexican women between 60 and 64 years old.

Support for women and new works

During the event, the president stressed that the benefit recognizes the care work that women have historically carried out. Currently, almost 70 thousand people of Guerrero receive support, of which around 18 thousand reside in the port.

“When women walk together, there is nothing that stops us, we are the center of the Transformation, we are the history and future of Mexico,” stated Sheinbaum.

In terms of infrastructure, the president announced the definitive cancellation of the La Parota Dam project due to its effects on communities. Instead, wells and high tanks will be built to guarantee the supply of drinking water. Rehabilitation work will also be carried out after hurricanes Otis and John.

Sheinbaum reiterated his administration’s commitment to women and the sustainable development of Guerrero, prioritizing solutions that do not harm the social or natural environment.

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They urge SEP to strengthen actions against bullying

28.5% of adolescents suffered bullying; They urge SEP to reinforce protection protocols.

The Second Commission of the Permanent Congress approved an opinion that urges the Ministry of Public Education (SEP) and the educational authorities of the 32 entities to reinforce strategies for preventing bullying and school violence. The request is part of the “Safe School Environments” program.

According to the National Discrimination Survey (ENADIS) 2022, carried out by Inegi, Conapred and the CNDH, around 28.5% of people between 12 and 17 years old have experienced some form of harassment or mistreatment at their school. The National Educational System serves more than 34 million students in 258 thousand basic, upper secondary and higher education schools.

The “Safe School Environments” strategy promotes co-responsibility between authorities, families and school communities to prevent risks and promote a culture of peace. The opinion highlights that this mechanism articulates guidelines, protocols and actions to guarantee safe, healthy and inclusive spaces, without restricting fundamental rights.

The legislators considered it necessary to maintain permanent prevention and care actions. The exhortation seeks to ensure that educational centers are environments free of harassment, with full respect for human rights and the best interests of children.

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Sheinbaum reinforces security and housing in Cuautla

The president presented a package of social and security actions in Cuautla, Morelos.

President Claudia Sheinbaum visited Cuautla, Morelos, to announce a set of social and security measures. Among them, the construction of 10 new schools of the “Margarita Maza” National High School, house-to-house visits, more jobs through Young People Building the Future and a greater presence of the National Guard.

“We are going to build together, because this is a job for everyone, for families to care for their children, for the state government and for the federal government,” the president highlighted.

The visit occurred after the arrest of the mayor of Cuautla. Sheinbaum instructed strengthening the federal presence with attention to the causes, as part of the National Security Strategy. Next week they will begin house-to-house tours and outreach to merchants. He promised to return in three months to monitor progress.

Housing for Wellbeing

At the event, 128 Infonavit homes and 207 Insus deeds were also delivered. Sheinbaum recalled the four components of the program: build 1.8 million new houses for people with incomes of one to two minimum wages; deliver the same number of credits for improvement; grant a million deeds; and restructure unpayable loans for 5 million families.

Octavio Romero Oropeza, director of Infonavit, reported that of the goal of 1.2 million homes, there are already 440 approved complexes that total 514 thousand houses (43% progress). In Morelos, the goal is 13 thousand new homes with an investment of 8,150 million pesos.

Edna Elena Vega Rangel, head of Sedatu, explained that 128 homes and 207 deeds were delivered. Governor Margarita González Saravia thanked the expansion of the state goal to 24 thousand houses in the six-year term, in addition to other works such as modernization of the countryside, a Convention Center in Cuernavaca and the “Circuito Tierra y Libertad” highway program.

The beneficiary Kendra Ramírez Orozco expressed her gratitude for access to housing. Sheinbaum reiterated his commitment to return in three months to follow up.

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