The dance of the winds: what’s coming
The National Weather Service dropped the bomb. By 2026, the Pacific will be a hotbed of cyclones, while the Atlantic will take things more calmly. It’s nothing to be alarmed about, they say, but you have to be ready.
How many and how?
Between 18 and 21 tropical systems are expected in the Pacific. Of those, four to five could become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). The breakdown:
- 9 to 10 tropical storms
- 5 to 6 category 1 or 2 hurricanes
- 4 to 5 major hurricanes
In the Atlantic, things are lighter: from 11 to 15 phenomena, with only one or two reaching high intensities. The names of this season sound like a list of friends: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal… even Wilfred.
The Child shows his head
Here comes the juicy part. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to enter the scene between May and July, with a 61% probability. And not only that: it could strengthen just when the cyclones are at their peak (August to October). Towards winter, there is a 25% chance that it will become a very strong event.
What does this mean to you?
Mexico receives an average of five cyclones a year. Since the sixties, 174 have entered from the Pacific (three per year) and 120 from the Atlantic (two annually). Laura Velázquez Alzúa, the head of Civil Protection, made it clear: “This scientific information should not be a cause for alarm, but rather a call for responsible and coordinated action.”
“A call to responsible and coordinated action to protect life and heritage” – Laura Velázquez Alzúa.
The national meeting brought together all authorities—Defense, Navy, Conagua—to refine the strategy. It is not for less. The season starts in May and promises strong emotions.
