Winter extends: Cold front 27 active with more to come
While Mexico City dawns with that bone-deep cold and snow falls are reported in the north of the country, many are wondering when they will be able to put away their jackets for good. The answer, according to experts, is not so soon.
The person responsible is cold front number 27, a meteorological phenomenon that the National Meteorological Service (SMN) explains as the collision between a cold air mass and a hot one, generating atmospheric instability. This encounter is no small thing: it brings with it sudden drops in temperature, frost, intense winds, strong waves and drizzle.
How long will the cold season last?
Here’s the key fact that many were expecting: the cold front season in Mexico officially runs from September to May. Although their frequency and duration are variable, on average the arrival of about 58 frontal systems per year is estimated.
But let’s not just stay with the average. The National Water Commission (Conagua) already has a more detailed forecast for the remainder of the season. For the period from January to May this year, 48 cold fronts are forecast. This is what we expect month by month:
- January: 2 observed and 6 predicted
- February: 5 predicted
- March: 6 predicted
- April: 5 predicted
- May: 3 predicted
“With this it is estimated that until the fifth month of the year, states with low temperatures will continue to be recorded in the country,” highlights the report.
This means that even though we crave the warmth, coats will still be necessary for much of the first semester.
Next system is already on the way: Impact for the southeast
While we deal with the current one, another frontal system is already scheduled on the national weather agenda. The SMN predicts the entry of a new cold front across the northern border this Wednesday, January 14.
This system does not come alone. It is expected to cause heavy rain, strong gusts of wind and another notable drop in temperatures in several regions. It will move rapidly over the northeast and the Gulf of Mexico, where it will interact with a low pressure trough in the southeast. This combination is a recipe for severe weather.
For this Wednesday, heavy showers and occasional rains are forecast in Hidalgo, Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Chiapas and Tabasco. The winds will be protagonists in Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León and San Luis Potosí, with gusts of between 50 and 70 km/h. In Tamaulipas and Veracruz a “North” event will be activated in the afternoon.
For Thursday the 15th, things get more interesting (or complicated). The front will move over the Yucatan Peninsula and southeast Mexico. The forecast includes:
- Very heavy rains in Veracruz, Oaxaca, Chiapas and Tabasco.
- Heavy rains in Puebla and Campeche.
- Showers in Yucatán and Quintana Roo.
- The “North” event will intensify with the associated polar air mass, with monstrous gusts of 60 to 80 km/h in Veracruz and the Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec.
- Minor (but significant) gusts of 40 to 60 km/h in Tamaulipas, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.
The thermometer will drop noticeably again in the north, northeast, center, east and southeast of the country, including Yucatán. The official message is clear: “the population is recommended to take precautions against adverse weather conditions”. This is not a light suggestion.
And then… when does the heat come?
For those who already dream of putting away their sweaters, there is a defined horizon. According to the Ministry of Health of the State of Mexico (a source that knows well how thermal extremes affect public health), the official high temperature season runs from the third week of March until September or the first week of October.
However, the real heat boom—that intense sun that makes us seek shade—is mainly concentrated and intensified from May to July, just before the relief that comes with the annual rainy season.
That’s how things are. We have an active cold front today; another arriving tomorrow; almost fifty more scheduled until May; and then… finally… we can give our winter clothes a well-deserved vacation as we prepare to welcome the summer sun. Nature has its own undisturbed calendar.
