A secret report that no one wanted to hear
The United States intelligence services had already said it, clear as day. Before the current military intervention in Iran began, a classified analysis reached an uncomfortable conclusion: an offensive was unlikely to trigger regime change.
I know, it sounds like déjà vu. How many times have we seen this movie? Grandiloquent promises colliding with complex realities.
What those who know said
The report, prepared by the National Intelligence Council in February, got straight to the point. According to people familiar with the document:
Neither limited airstrikes nor a broader, longer military campaign would bring a new government to power in Iran.
And here comes the most interesting thing – even if part of the Iranian leadership were eliminated, the political system would probably try to maintain continuity of power. It’s not just about people, it’s about structures.
I look at this analysis and think of all the previous conflicts where we underestimated the resilience of political systems. History has a bad memory, but patterns repeat themselves.
What worries me is not just what the report says, but the fact that it existed before the intervention. Was it ignored? Was it minimized? The questions pile up as the consequences unfold in real time.
For Iranian families – and for any mother or father watching the news – this is not geopolitical theory. They are lives interrupted, futures uncertain. And when the previous analyzes turn out to be correct, it hurts doubly.
