Sheinbaum and Brazil: An ‘It’s Not You, It’s Me’ in the Geopolitical Scene
It seems that Claudia Sheinbaum is putting a handbrake on the idea of a classic free trade agreement with Brazil. Yes, that country that everyone talks about in the news. Instead, the president announced, with the calm of someone choosing the playlist for a boring party, that what is being prepared is an agreement of complementarity and cooperation. Basically, it’s like deciding to be ‘best friends’ instead of boyfriend and girlfriend with business rights. Very mature, really.
On Thursday at noon, in the very National Palace, a private meeting is scheduled with Geraldo Alckmin, the Brazilian vice president, and a delegation of businessmen. Imagine the scene: coffee in between, diplomatic smiles and that awkward moment when everyone tries to remember if they turned off airplane mode before entering. Sheinbaum described it as a session to do a “summary of the meetings” and see what “agreements can be reached.” In other words, the typical work meeting that promises a lot but from which, let’s be honest, no one expects a miracle.
And what does this ‘complementarity’ thing consist of?
According to the official narrative, Brazil is the nerd that dominates certain technologies that Mexico is interested in, and Mexico is the cool one that has development in certain areas that would be great for Brazil. It is the geopolitical equivalent of “you have control of the TV and I have Netflix, let’s make a pact.” It is not an FTA, they insist, it is something more subtle, more about collaboration. Like a coworking, but for countries.
Marcelo Ebrard, from his role in the Ministry of Economy, was in charge of bringing diplomatic poetry down to earth. It turns out that some memorandums of understanding were signed (which sound very important but are basically like the ‘let’s see each other later’ of international relations). The main objective, he said, is to “update provisions” that currently limit Mexican exports, especially from the automotive industry. On the Brazilian side, the strong issue is agri-food, because they are, literally, the kings of the assortment in that matter.
But the most random thing on the agenda was the proposal for an agreement between health regulatory agencies. Because, what would a bilateral meeting be without a touch of health bureaucracy to make it memorable? In short, don’t expect Brazilian products to flood Mexican stores (or vice versa) with outlet prices. This is more about exchanging know-how and unblocking some specific bottlenecks. A very ‘slow commerce’ vibe, if you will.
Sheinbaum’s strategy seems clear: avoid mega-agreements that sound good in a headline but then generate a thousand dramas, and opt for a more pragmatic and sectoral cooperation. It’s playing geopolitical Tinder but looking for friendships with very specific benefits, not serious and committed relationships. Will it work? Who knows. But at least it sounds less boring than an economics class on a Sunday morning.
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