The electoral reform script has a key scene pending
President Claudia Sheinbaum asked this Wednesday that no one get ahead of the facts. The premiere of her constitutional reform initiative on electoral matters is scheduled for next week, and she wants the debate to begin there.
“We are going to wait for the day we send the reform, we already talked about everything there, let’s not get ahead of ourselves,” he said from the National Palace.
His call for calm comes just as one of the main players on his own team acknowledged a serious problem. Ricardo Monreal, coordinator of Morena in San Lázaro, admitted that there are no agreements with the Labor Party (PT) nor with the Green Party.
Without those votes, the qualified majority needed to change the Constitution vanishes. It’s like preparing a theater performance without having confirmed the supporting actors.
A complicated backup
Monreal, a political operator with decades of experience, painted a complex picture. He said that Sheinbaum, out of “consistency,” will probably send the initiative as he proposed it from the beginning. This includes the controversial point of reducing multi-member deputies.
“Knowing the President… she will probably present an initiative that she considers convenient,” Monreal declared. And he added: “for me it will be very difficult to seek agreements for the qualified majority.”
That’s the crux of the matter. Morena promises to support her “in everything”, but that support is not enough. They need to add external forces and today those forces are not aligned.
Sheinbaum plays a role of strategic patience. He knows that sending an initiative without guaranteed votes would be a major political mistake. It would be like going on stage without knowing the end of the play.
Next week we will see if the script is rewritten at the last minute or if the performance should be postponed. For now, the curtain has not yet risen.
