The illegal flow of weapons and its impact on bilateral security
The tension regarding border security between Mexico and United States during the second administration of Donald Trump has highlighted an imbalance in shared responsibilities. While Washington points to fentanyl and migration as priority problems, arms trafficking into Mexican territory continues to receive the necessary attention. According to analysts, each year approximately 200,000 firearms enter Mexico from the US, many of which end up in the hands of criminal organizations classified as terrorists by the US government itself.
Critical paths and lack of action
A report from the Mexican Secretary of Citizen Security identified that 74% of illicit weapons comes from the states of Arizona, California and Texas. These findings coincide with data from the US Department of Justice, which adds New Mexico as another key point. The lack of budget and stricter controls on the northern border suggests that combating weapons smuggling is not a priority for US authorities.
Alejandro Celorio, an expert in international law, highlights the inconsistency: “Mexico has been pointing to Texas as the origin of the problem for years, but there is no reinforcement of operations or greater presence of the ATF.” U.S. laws protect gun manufacturers, limiting Mexico’s ability to take effective legal action.
Figures that reveal a constant pattern
Between 2022 and 2023, 73% of the guns seized in Mexico were traced to buyers in the same three states. In addition, the Mexican report reported the seizure of 5,869 weapons, 31,000 magazines and more than 1.2 million cartridges in just six months. Texas continues to be the main point of origin (43%), followed by Arizona (22%). These findings reinforce the US’s negligence in stopping the flow towards cartels such as Sinaloa and Jalisco Nueva Generación.
John Lindsay Poland, an activist with the Stop US Arms to Mexico project, says: “If Trump wanted to take down the cartels, he should focus on guns, but he is cutting the ATF budget and relaxing controls.” The former president’s plan includes eliminating 66% of inspectors and destroying records of gun owners after 20 years.
Implications and future challenges
Although traceability data is limited, its disclosure is crucial to sustain the Mexican position in future legal disputes. However, Celorio rules out legal action in Texas, a state with legislation favorable to the arms industry. The solution, experts agree, requires diplomatic pressure and greater bilateral cooperation, something unlikely in the current political scenario.
Are you interested in learning more about regional security? Share this analysis and explore other content on arms control policies on our platform.
