Inflation is losing speed, but the tomato remains unstoppable
Inflation in Mexico moderated for the fourth consecutive fortnight. The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported that during the first half of May it reached 4.11%, below the 4.13% that analysts expected. In March it had reached a peak of 4.63%.
However, not all products behave the same. Tomatoes became 118.5% more expensive compared to the previous year. It is followed by the poblano chile with 68.4% and the potato with 56.5%. At the other extreme, avocado fell 38.5%, guava 24.4% and papaya 20.6%.
Chetumal, the most pressured city; Tijuana, the most moderate
The impact was uneven between regions. Chetumal, Quintana Roo, recorded the highest annual inflation among 55 monitored cities: 6.4%. On the other hand, Tijuana, Baja California, had the lowest rate: 2.6%.
National inflation is six fortnights outside Banxico’s target range (2% to 4%). On Thursday, the central bank published the minutes of its May 7 decision, when it cut the interest rate from 6.75% to 6.50%. The vote was divided: deputy governors Galia Borja and Jonathan Heath opposed and asked to keep the rate at 6.75%.
Analysts see end of the cut cycle
Banamex analysts pointed out that the majority of the Governing Board overestimates economic slack.
“They are dismissing a complex inflationary outlook, with inflation above the target, rising expectations and an accumulation of price shocks,” they indicated.
Their central scenario is that the rate remains at 6.50% for the remainder of 2026 and 2027, although they see a bias towards another cut. Banorte strategists agreed:
“The minutes corroborated that the rate cuts have ended,” they stated.
They predict that the central bank will leave the rate unchanged at 6.50% for the rest of 2026 and all of 2027.
The majority of Banxico members consider that agricultural price shocks will be transitory and that the effects of the conflict in the Middle East will be limited. However, dissidents advocate caution in the face of an uncertain environment.




