Inflation drops to 4.11% but tomato and chili put pressure on the pocket

Tomato rises 118.5%, avocado falls 38.5%. National inflation reaches 4.11% and Banxico faces divisions.

Inflation is losing speed, but the tomato remains unstoppable

Inflation in Mexico moderated for the fourth consecutive fortnight. The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported that during the first half of May it reached 4.11%, below the 4.13% that analysts expected. In March it had reached a peak of 4.63%.

However, not all products behave the same. Tomatoes became 118.5% more expensive compared to the previous year. It is followed by the poblano chile with 68.4% and the potato with 56.5%. At the other extreme, avocado fell 38.5%, guava 24.4% and papaya 20.6%.

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Chetumal, the most pressured city; Tijuana, the most moderate

The impact was uneven between regions. Chetumal, Quintana Roo, recorded the highest annual inflation among 55 monitored cities: 6.4%. On the other hand, Tijuana, Baja California, had the lowest rate: 2.6%.

National inflation is six fortnights outside Banxico’s target range (2% to 4%). On Thursday, the central bank published the minutes of its May 7 decision, when it cut the interest rate from 6.75% to 6.50%. The vote was divided: deputy governors Galia Borja and Jonathan Heath opposed and asked to keep the rate at 6.75%.

Analysts see end of the cut cycle

Banamex analysts pointed out that the majority of the Governing Board overestimates economic slack.

“They are dismissing a complex inflationary outlook, with inflation above the target, rising expectations and an accumulation of price shocks,” they indicated.

Their central scenario is that the rate remains at 6.50% for the remainder of 2026 and 2027, although they see a bias towards another cut. Banorte strategists agreed:

“The minutes corroborated that the rate cuts have ended,” they stated.

They predict that the central bank will leave the rate unchanged at 6.50% for the rest of 2026 and all of 2027.

The majority of Banxico members consider that agricultural price shocks will be transitory and that the effects of the conflict in the Middle East will be limited. However, dissidents advocate caution in the face of an uncertain environment.

Pemex cuts investment and production deviates from the goal

Pemex reduced its investment by 5.9% in the first quarter; crude oil production is moving away from the goal.

Pemex adjusted its spending again. The exploration and production subsidiary received a 5.9% cut in its investment capital during the first quarter compared to what was scheduled.

The approved budget was 86.7 billion pesos, but the company reported to the US Securities and Exchange Commission that it invested 81.6 billion. The difference directly affects the production platform.

Currently, Pemex extracts 1.6 million barrels per day, far from the goal of 1.8 million. Gonzalo Monroy, director of GMEC, warned:

“We are flying directly and non-stop at 1.2 million barrels per day in 2027, which means that once the water is discounted, we would be at a million extraction levels during the next year.”

Drilling rigs also decreased: from 32 to 25 between January and May, according to data from the consulting firm. So far this six-year term, 10 mixed contracts have been awarded, seven in a first block (fields such as Macavil and Tamaulipas) and three recently (Rabasa, San Ramón and Cinco Presidentes). Pemex plans to produce up to 450 thousand barrels per day with these contracts, but the developments would take place beyond 2033.

Oil vocation in question

Miriam Grunstein, an academic at the Mexico Center at Rice University, said that the situation is alarming in the short term. Pemex loses income from lower exports and from privileging feeding the National Refining System, instead of extracting more crude oil.

“Sheinbaum’s government is betting on renewable electricity generation projects. Meanwhile, the budget cut in crude oil extraction indicates that the country no longer has a conviction or vocation for oil,” he said.

Grunstein added that the difference in investment between renewable energy and exploration is enormous: “At some point we are going to face a very harsh reality. The abandonment of extraction has been so much that it is alarming.”

Agreement with Petrobras, but without teeth

The Mexican government signed a collaboration agreement with the Brazilian Petrobras to acquire extraction techniques in deep waters, where Pemex has minimal activity. It includes exchange of knowledge and best practices, but the pact is non-binding, valid for two years and renewable.

Both Monroy and Grunstein agreed that the agreement was weak. Moody’s, when lowering Mexico’s rating on May 20, expressed greater concern about government debt and support for Pemex. The agency estimated that the government provided support for 35 billion dollars in 2025, equivalent to 1.9% of GDP, and budgeted another 14 billion for 2026. An improvement in the rating will depend on reducing the deficit and contingent risks of the oil company.

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Jareta and Bundas: the canines that stop drug trafficking in Veracruz

Seven trained dogs detect illicit substances in ports and airports.

Jareta: discipline and training

Jareta, a Belgian Malinois, moves with precision between wooden boxes during an exercise at the Veracruz Naval Air Base. It is part of the seven canines that make up the unit of the First Naval Region. Their training combines play with challenging routines to develop detection skills.

“Due to their operational life and functions for which they are prepared, they are very calm little animals that manage to concentrate on their work,” describes Lieutenant Montserrat Zamora, veterinary doctor of the unit.

The specialist explains that Jareta ignores weapon detonations, explosions and the noise of turbines. When it detects narcotics, it makes a passive alert. “The truth is, it is a great pride because we are a team,” says the officer.

Bundas, forged in trust

At three years old, Bundas reflects inexhaustible energy. He stands out for his obedience and has established a special bond with Second Master Armando Sosa Rojas, in charge of the Canine Department.

“We have created a special bond. I feel a love and an attachment because since he arrived I had to receive him and we are still together,” highlights Sosa.

Bundas is among the unit’s most effective agents. Throughout his service he has contributed to the largest number of seizures through the detection of drug shipments. The teacher remembers that the main objective of the training is that “illicit substances do not reach their destination.”

“I trust my canine a lot, I know him and he is a good asset,” says the officer.

In 2024, the 38 binomials deployed in Veracruz and Tamaulipas secured close to a ton of prohibited substances. The unit operates from the Las Bajadas Aeronaval Base and carries out inspections on vehicles, ships and aircraft.

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LP gas pipe explosion in Texcoco leaves two dead

LP gas pipe overturning leaves two dead and one injured in Texcoco.

Accident on the Texcoco-Calpulalpan highway

An LP gas pipe overturned and exploded on the Texcoco-Calpulalpan highway. The balance: two people dead and a woman with injuries.

The accident occurred at 7:30 a.m. on Saturday. The driver lost control near the community of Santa Inés. The unit, of the Freightliner brand with a capacity of 24 thousand liters, transported liquefied petroleum gas for the Global Gas company.

After the overturn, the pipe began to burn. The fire hit the driver and his passenger, who were burned to death at the scene.

A woman who was walking in the area was hit by a metal splinter. She suffered injuries to her pelvic limb and was taken to the Guadalupe Victoria Hospital in Texcoco.

The explosion generated a shock wave that damaged the facade of a taco restaurant, which also caught fire. Emergency services extinguished the fire.

Additionally, a Ford Edge pickup truck was damaged. Its driver, a 65-year-old man, was treated by paramedics for facial irritation.

The accident occurred on the borders of Tepetlaoxtoc and Texcoco. Emergency services from both municipalities and the General Coordination of Civil Protection and Comprehensive Risk Management of the State of Mexico attended.

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