And now what? The precedent that has us all on high alert mode
Well, the world woke up this Saturday to news that seems straight out of a particularly chaotic season of House of Cards: The United States, under the orders of the always unpredictable Donald Trump, decided that international norms were a suggestion and intervened militarily in Venezuela. Yes, you read that right. And according to Arlene Ramírez Urestitrailer of what could happen here.
In a talk with EL UNIVERSAL, the Forbes Mexico columnist also dropped the bomb: what happened in Venezuela sets a “quite complex” precedent. I mean, basically, the superpower just threw the diplomacy manual out the window and said “I play by my own rules.” For her, and be careful here, no country in the region is safe, including, of course, our beautiful and beloved Mexico. Trump’s constant threat to “help” with drug trafficking stopped being an angry tweet and became a real possibility. Spoiler: their “help” does not usually include prior consultations.
International Law, that uncomfortable detail that Trump ignored
The most serious thing? That this movement ignored International Law and Article 2 of the UN Charter as if nothing had happened. “It opens the door for the US to move the chess pieces completely outside the regulatory framework,” explained Ramírez Uresti with a calm that we envy. In Christian: he skipped all the protocols. And when he was asked directly about the possibility of a frontal attack on the Mexican cartels, his response was worthy of a thriller: “Donald Trump is totally unpredictable.” He has just shown that he is willing to recover his political capital at any cost, even if that means invading the sovereignty of another country.
But, what about Maduro? Contrary to what many believe, the expert denies that the Venezuelan regime is completely overthrown. As long as Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, the right hand of Nicolás Maduro, is still in the game, the matter is on hold. The next few hours will be key to see if she takes office or decides that the chapter of the dictatorship has come to an end. A real-time drama that has more twists than a 9 o’clock soap opera.
And the sanctions? Forget it, the system is broken
Here comes the part where reality surpasses fiction: there will hardly be international sanctions against the United States. The reason? The international system is, to use his words, “very weakened.” The US is one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and has a veto power that makes it practically immune. Bringing the International Court of Justice to the country that has just invaded another is, according to her, “very complicated.” Basically, it’s like wanting to sue the neighborhood bully when he’s the one who makes the rules. Ironic, right?
To make matters worse, Trump needs to keep the flame of Trumpism alive, and that, my friends, is what should have us all on high alert. “He can be capable of anything,” said the analyst. His logic is simple: if he already did it once, ignoring all conventions, what would stop him from repeating the move in another scenario, such as the “war on drugs” in Mexico? Nothing. Absolutely nothing.
In short, the geopolitical chessboard has just received an epic shake-up. The intervention in Venezuela is not an isolated event; It is a message in giant letters for the world. And Mexico, due to its proximity and the constant rhetoric of the American president, is in the first row of the possible “next ones.” The “America First” doctrine translates, in practice, into unilateral actions where the right to intervention seems to prevail over the right to sovereignty. A panorama that requires more than ever to be informed and vigilant.
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