The economical package that has everyone with the earring in their hand
Well, people, it turns out that the current administration’s tax plan is making a good part of the business sector feel like a tight fit. Dozens of companies and associations, in a clearly “hard pass” mood, have come out to publicly reject the Income Law and the reform to the Tax Code. Basically, it is the equivalent of raising your rent, taking away your Wi-Fi, and also charging you for breathing. In a meeting that was surely more loaded with tension than a family WhatsApp group, these representatives spilled the beans to the authorities of the Treasury Commission. His main warning: this could weaken economic activity in the country, make the informal sector grow more than gossip in a café, and cause a flight of jobs and investments that would make the final scene of ‘Avengers: Endgame’ look like a simple neighborhood meeting.
The situation is so complex that it even deserves its own drama on Netflix. On the one hand, there are those who defend the measures for public health reasons (more on that later), and on the other, an army of businessmen who see how their businesses could go downhill. It is the epic battle between collection and economic reactivation, and us, mere mortals, in the middle, watching everything from our basic basket to our guilty tastes become more expensive.
Online commerce, tacos and cigarettes: the unexpected targets of the reform
Let’s start where we all shop at 3 in the morning: internet. Pierre Claude Blaise, from the Mexican Online Sales Association, came to make things clear. He explained that the tax increase on digital platforms is not only a blow to big tech, but also “puts at risk the continuity of thousands of SMEs and the purchasing power of millions of Mexican consumers.” In other words, your online pet accessories store or your scented candle business could be in danger. And it is no small thing: e-commerce already generates 6% of the national GDP, has created thousands of jobs and has attracted foreign investment. His prediction is that this law, far from helping, will “reverse investments.” Basically, they are putting a stop to digital progress in the middle of 2025.
Then, we enter a more delicate area: food. Vicente Gutiérrez, from Canaco CDMX, went all out against the increase in the IEPS for soft drinks and products with high calorie content, bluntly describing it as a “revenue tax” that “is not going to help reduce obesity.” And here came his star argument, one that resonated in the soul of every Mexican: “If they wanted to do that, the garnachas, the cakes, the tacos, the tamales would have to disappear.” Attack the Garnachas, but leave my soda alone! His point is that this tax does not combat the root problem, but rather “attacks the consumer and the shopkeeper”, disproportionately affecting the “poorest and most humble”, since 85% of what the corner stores sell are precisely these drinks. In other words, they are making life difficult for small businesses, the heart of many neighborhoods.
And if you thought the drama ended there, get ready for the tobacco plot twist. Gastón Zambrano Margaín, from the National Council of the Tobacco Industry, painted a scenario worthy of a series of drug traffickers. He assured that the IEPS on cigarettes will generate an increase of up to 17 pesos per pack. The direct consequence? “The illegal cigarette market is going to increase.” Let’s put it in perspective: an illegal pack costs about 20 pesos. If this reform is approved, the legal price could exceed 100 pesos next year. The difference would be almost four times. “It would undoubtedly increase the illegal cigarette market that today is under the control of organized crime,” he stated. In other words, in the effort to raise more, they could be inadvertently financing crime. The shot, as they would say, could backfire.
Casinos, airlines and the health debate: the plot thickens
The game world was not spared either. Alfonso Pérez Lizaur, representative of the games and raffles association, warned that raising taxes on games of chance will only encourage “the transfer to the informal sector.” He highlighted that the branch of casinos, lotteries and other regulated games “contributes significantly to the formal economy.” According to INEGI, these activities generated 42,200 million pesos in formal income, many of them through supervised digital channels. Its logic is simple: if legal becomes too expensive, people will look for shadow options, with the State losing control and revenue.
In the same vein, Rosa Elena García, from Concanaco Servytur, released a phrase that summarizes the concern of many: the increase in the IEPS “strengthens collection, but weakens economic activity.” Their greatest concern focuses on micro, small and medium-sized businesses, which could suffer “irreparable economic effects.” He especially criticized the new rules that would allow a taxpayer’s digital stamps to be blocked even before there is a final resolution against them. This means that a business could be paralyzed in its operations without having exhausted its right to defend itself, affecting jobs and supply chains. A kind of “preventive closure” that scares anyone who has a business.
Even the airlines got involved. Sergio González Olavarría, from the National Chamber of Air Transport (Canaero), complained about an article that increases the cost of the fee for visitors without permission to work (the famous DNR). He called it “excessive.” The detail is that this cost is absorbed directly by the airlines and, as tickets are purchased up to 90 days in advance, the rate that comes into effect in 2026 is already having an impact. Their request was to postpone the payment obligation until April 2026 to be able to adjust. Because, let’s be honest, in air travel, any extra increase hurts more than a coach seat on a 10-hour flight.
But, surprise, not everything is rejection. In a plot twist, there were voices in favor. Noel González, from SERAJ Saludhable, celebrated the increase of the IEPS for tobacco with an argument that sounded more like a chemistry class: “toxicologically, nicotine is considered a poison and historically it has been used as an insecticide.” For her part, Adriana Rocha, from Salud Justa, not only supported the proposal, but asked to go further: increase the Tobacco tax by 3 pesos per unit, immediately. According to his calculations, this would reduce consumption by 40% and increase collection by 25%, reaching a stratospheric 78 billion pesos in tobacco taxes, money that, he claims, would be enough to finance a complete health program. A position that, without a doubt, adds more layers to this mess.
The closing of this chapter remains to be written. The analysis of the economic package is expected to begin in the Treasury Commission starting next week. Meanwhile, the country waits to see whether these tax reforms become a boost to the public coffers or the next villain of the national economy.
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