A Warning for the Economy and Public Health
Did you know that a well-intentioned tax decision can have an effect completely opposite to that desired? The National Chamber of the Processing Industry (Canacintra) has launched a crucial alert: if the proposal to increase the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) applied to cigarettes is approved by 2026, we could be facing a turning point. Its projection is forceful: half of the purchases of this product would be made on the black market. Imagine for a moment the consequences of one in every two cigarettes consumed completely escaping the control of the authorities.
Currently, this illicit trade already represents one fifth of total tobacco consumption, a figure that in itself is alarming. This phenomenon is not only a legality problem; It translates into a tax loss of between 13 thousand and 15 billion pesos annually. The tax increase proposed for next year, far from being the solution to reduce consumption, would act as a powerful magnet that would attract supply towards the clandestine circuit. This is not a minor forecast, it is an economic reality that we are already experiencing.
The Danger for the New Generations
One of the most sensitive aspects of this problem was highlighted by María de Lourdes Medina Ortega, president of Canacintra. She asserts that this measure would dramatically facilitate the sale of illegal cigarettes among minors. Think about the logic: when buying a pack in a formal store means spending at least 20 pesos more than in the irregular market, the choice for a young person with limited resources becomes obvious. The National Tobacco Industry Council supports these data, painting a scenario where economic accessibility becomes the worst enemy of prevention.
Ms. Medina Ortega was clear and direct: stopping cigarette consumption cannot be achieved solely with punitive fiscal policies. This battle requires more sophisticated and effective weapons: true information, constant education and prevention talks that explain in a raw and real way the effects of smoking. It is about empowering citizens with knowledge, not just taxing a product until it goes underground. Awareness is the cornerstone for lasting change.
The recent history of Mexico is the most eloquent witness. The chamber of industrialists recalled that in the past, increasing taxes on cigarettes has had “terrible results in economic, fiscal and health matters.” And this is not an abstract hypothesis. The budget package for 2026 includes a specific proposal to raise the IEPS on cigarettes by 30%, which means that the fee would go from 0.6445 pesos per unit to 1.1584 pesos. A large jump that, according to the evidence, could be counterproductive.
Let’s take the example of 2024: initial estimates calculated a collection by IEPS for cigarettes of 52,699 million pesos. However, reality prevailed and the actual collection was only 48 billion pesos. That billion-dollar gap is not a simple miscalculation; It is the visible trace of a market that is moving towards illegality, evading the treasury and operating outside of any regulation.
The words of the president of Canacintra could not be clearer: “They are not hypotheses or estimates: History in Mexico, not in another country, has already shown us that the combat against smoking is not with aggressive fiscal policies, it is with information and medium and long-term health policies.” A greater tax burden, he insisted, only encourages tobacco smuggling and strengthens a sector that evades taxes and sells products without any restrictions, which directly facilitates tobacco consumption among our young people.
This debate transcends the economic and enters the field of public health and social cohesion. A comprehensive strategy is needed that combines fiscal wisdom with a vigorous educational campaign. The final goal is noble and shared by all: a healthier Mexico. But the path to get there must be paved with intelligent and effective measures, which do not inadvertently feed the problems they are intended to solve. The choice is clear: repeat the mistakes of the past or chart a new course based on evidence and prevention?
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