The end of an era (or how karma is a bot)
Imagine the scene: after almost two decades of being the masters of the show, the kings of the party, the Movement Al Socialism (MAS) of Bolivia has just received an electoral beating of the kind that hurts to the soul. And no, it is not just another episode of a boring political series. This is the equivalent of the main character dying in the first season. The official results of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal confirmed what everyone was whispering: the stone giant cracked. The party that once controlled everything was left with just two deputies and an embarrassing zero left in the Senate. Not a single senator. Zero. Nothing. The awkward silence after the music turns off.
The Legislative Assembly, which before was basically its backyard, is now a battlefield where the MAS is an almost token participant. Of the 166 assembly members, the center-right and the right divide the spoils. The centrist Rodrigo Paz won 65 seats and the right-wing Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga secured 51. So that you understand the magnitude of the earthquake, in the 2020 elections the MAS had 96. It is as if suddenly your favorite team, the one that always won the league, was relegated to the second division. The kid’s dream turned into a nightmare.
Guilts, pacts and a runoff ahead
And of course, in the midst of the collapse, the time comes to point out the culprits. President Luis Arce did not think twice and targeted his predecessor and now nemesis, Evo Morales. The internal fight for control of the party was so epic and public that it ended up fracturing its support base. Morales, from his exile/self-exile/trench (choose the term you prefer), went so far as to call for a null vote. And people, tired of the drama, listened to him. The null vote reached a historical record of 19.87%, an astronomical figure if we compare it with the 4% in previous elections. Basically, a fifth of the electorate decided that none of the available options deserved their trust. Mood.
All this leads to the first presidential runoff in Bolivian history, scheduled for October 19. Paz and Quiroga will face each other in a second round that promises more tension than the end of *The Squid Game*. But here is an important detail: none of the majority blocs has the two-thirds necessary to approve laws at will. This means that, whoever wins, they will have to get off their clouds and make a deal. Yes, that uncomfortable activity of talking to others to get things. The winner of the runoff election will need to make alliances with other forces if he wants to govern more than just his Twitter account, as political analyst Carlos Saavedra pointed out.
The meeting between Arce and Paz to talk about a “peaceful government transition” and analyze the brutal economic crisis that the country is going through was the most surreal gesture of the week. Quiroga, for his part, declined the invitation with an elegant “step, thank you,” arguing that the government must give concrete signals and get to work seriously to address the emergency. A mood of “I don’t have time for photos, I have a country to fix.”
The experts couldn’t be clearer. Verónica Rocha, political communicator, speaks of a “dismemberment” of the popular national bloc. And Diego von Vacano, a political scientist at Texas A&M University, went even further by declaring that “the MAS is practically dead as a party, as a movement; it is finished.” According to him, this marks the end of the left in Bolivia, but it also shows that Evo Morales, in his fall, remains a powerful voice. I mean, he may have sunk the ship, but he made sure to be the last to leave it… and with megaphone in hand.
Meanwhile, in the losers’ tent, the MAS presidential candidate, former minister Eduardo Del Castillo, clings to 3.17% of the votes obtained as if it were a treasure. And it is, because it is just enough for the party not to lose its legal status. A very, very small consolation. The best positioned of what remains of the left was Andróniko Rodríguez, president of the Senate, who with a dissident force from the ruling party obtained 8.5% and eight deputies. Something is something.
The panorama that remains is that of a fragmented country, a political puzzle that someone will have to put together without having all the pieces. Hegemony has vanished and now it’s time to learn to coexist. The October result will not only define a president, but the model of the country that wants a Bolivia that clearly said “enough” to the status quo.
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