The script changes, but the protagonist is the same
Again. Donald Trump puts Mexico back on center stage with a new threat of tariffs. And as if in a political déjà vu, Marcelo Ebrard, our Secretary of Economy, comes to the fore. His first move: open a direct channel with Washington to understand where we stand this time.
The US Supreme Court has just dealt a blow to the former president, declaring his famous “reciprocal” tariffs unconstitutional. Trump, furious, has already announced that he will impose others. The American commercial theater has a new act.
“The first thing we have to do is act, as the president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has said, with cold blood,” Ebrard told reporters. “Because Trump just announced that he is going to impose other tariffs to replace the ones that the court removed. We have to see what that is going to be like.”
Here’s the good news: The White House later clarified that Mexican and Canadian assets within the USMCA will be left out of any temporary measures. It’s a respite. A collective sigh that is heard from Tijuana to Cancún.
The USMCA: our shield (with some cracks)
The treaty keeps tariffs at zero for 85% of what we export. It is our main retaining wall. But it’s not perfect.
We continue to deal with tomato quotas, sugar restrictions, and measures on steel and aluminum under the famous Section 232 (the one the US uses when it shouts “national security”). And if we do not comply with the rules of origin of the treaty, we do have to pay.
The real drama comes now: the USMCA review this year. Washington wants to tighten the rules, especially for cars and auto parts. It is a clear move to close the door to Chinese components that enter here.
But Mexico comes to this negotiation with strong cards. Look at these numbers:
- Mexican exports to the US in 2025: $534,874 million (historical record)
- Imports from the US: $337.96 billion (also a record)
“12% of the GDP of the United States is related to what happens in our trade. It is gigantic,” concluded Ebrard from Querétaro.
There is our best argument: we are your main commercial partner. What happens to us happens to them. Economic interdependence is now our best ally in this game of geopolitical chess where Trump always wants to move first.
Meanwhile, Ebrard continues his agenda: immediate contact with Washington and a visit scheduled for next week. The slogan is clear: cold blood and hard data. Because in this theater, the screams are drowned out by numbers.
