The streak is over: border tourism plummets
It seems that the party of international travelers at our borders had its post-pandemic hangover. After three years of climbing like there was no tomorrow, the flow of tourists who stay at least one night on the Mexican border strip decided to take a break. In September, the figure was 1,748 million people, which translates into a drop of 5.6% compared to the same month last year. Basically, it is the first setback since we came out of total confinement, according to the data from the International Traveler Surveys that the Inegi released this Tuesday. Kind of like when your favorite series has a disappointing season after a spectacular start.
The news came to us with that “we could already see it coming” tone that all economic forecasts have. Francisco Madrid, director of the Advanced Research Center for Sustainable Tourism (STARC), explained it with the elegance of someone trying to justify why he dropped his dessert: “We had a sustained trend of growth in border tourism that was interrupted during the national month.” That is, in September, the month of independence, people probably preferred other plans. Now, the big question is whether this was a simple one-month setback or the beginning of a “normalization” after growth that seemed taken from a video game with tricks. The next few months will be key to see if this was a bug in the matrix or the new reality.
The reasons behind the tourist downturn
To understand the drama, you first have to know who these border tourists are. They are those people who cross the border by land, either from the north or the south, and stay to sleep at least one night. Over the past three years, this segment was the life of the party, with an average annual growth of 16.8%. But, like all good excesses, it had to end. According to the analysis of the Madrid expert, this collapse is due to a trio of factors that sound like perfect excuses for a bad streak.
The first was the dollar, which at the beginning of 2025 was strong like a wrestler in spandex pants, but over time it lost steam. The second is the post-pandemic recovery, because, although we have made progress, the border flow has not yet reached the pre-covid levels of 2019. And the third, the most controversial, has to do with the immigration policy of the Donald Trump government, which may have pressured some Mexicans in the United States to return to Mexico, at least temporarily. Come on, a cocktail of economy, health and politics that explains why tourism took a break.
In short, what seemed like a smooth ride now faces a red light. The Inegi data does not lie: after an impressive rebound, normalization could be coming. And although it may sound like bad news, deep down it’s like when you finish a Netflix marathon and need a break before starting another one. Border tourism, after years of overwhelming growth, seems to be seeking its new balance. Of course, the experts will closely follow every movement, because in this game of numbers, even the smallest detail counts.
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