Mexico on the Global Map of Artificial Intelligence Trade
According to an exhaustive analysis by the World Trade Organization (WTO), Mexico has positioned itself strategically within the global supply chain of products and technologies linked to the development of artificial intelligence (AI). The nation figures prominently among countries that make significant imports and exports of raw materials, intermediate components, specialized equipment and finished products essential to this cutting-edge sector.
The global panorama is dominated by consolidated technological and economic powers. The main actors in this trade flow, both in the import and export aspects, are the United States, China, Hong Kong, South Korea and the European Union as a whole. However, the report highlights the rise of new manufacturing and supply hubs. Along with nations such as Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand, Mexico has experienced a substantial increase in exports of intermediate inputs and equipment directly related to AI ecosystems.
The Transformative Impact of AI on Global Trade
The World Trade Report 2025, an official document of the WTO, projects an optimistic but complex horizon. Economic models suggest that widespread adoption of artificial intelligence has the potential to boost the value of international trade in goods and services by approximately 40% by 2040. This projection underscores the catalytic role this technology will play over the next decade and a half.
To contextualize this future growth, historical data offers a clear perspective. The total trade in goods associated with the development of AI reached an all-time high of 2.9 trillion dollars in 2022, followed by a correction to 2.3 trillion dollars in 2023. The WTO attributes this year-on-year contraction to a multifactorial set that includes the implementation of strategic trade restrictions, evolutions in international regulatory frameworks, adjustments in the export capacity of leading countries and Strategic inventory collection cycles by large technology corporations.
This commercial dynamism occurs within a broader process of transformation of the global economy, driven by rapid technological advances. This phenomenon is redefining fundamental concepts such as the nature of work, value creation and the distribution of economic opportunities within global society. Despite the inherent uncertainty and the challenges this poses to traditional trade policies and investment patterns, the WTO maintains a firm stance: international trade will act as the main facilitating mechanism for the global diffusion of these technological advances, mitigating the risk that their development will be concentrated exclusively in a few economies.
Leadership Development and Implications in the Labor Market
Leadership in core AI innovation, particularly in the field of generative AI models, remains highly concentrated. Until April 2024, the United States led the list with the development of 439 models, followed at a considerable distance by China with 117 models and the United Kingdom with 88. This concentration of innovation capacity contrasts with the growing geographical distribution of the supply chain and manufacturing, where countries like Mexico are gaining relevance.
The international organization identifies a vast potential for AI to substantially reduce the costs associated with international trade, increase sectoral productivity and create new avenues for the production and export of digital services. However, this progress is not without significant consequences for the global workforce. A significant impact is anticipated, especially in service sectors where digitally delivered commerce had opened promising development opportunities for low- and middle-income economies.
A crucial finding of the report addresses the evolution of salaries. Globally, real wages are projected to trend upward across different occupational groups. Paradoxically, the wage premium associated with very specific premium skills is expected to decline between 3% and 4% in various scenarios. This indicates that AI-driven automation will have a greater impact on the substitution of tasks within medium and high-skill occupations, instead revaluing certain manual and low-skill tasks that are less susceptible to being automated with current technology.
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