The Federal Reserve, between Trump’s hammer and the anvil of inflation
Ah, the Federal Reserve, that glorious club of economists that decides whether money is worth more than the paper it is printed on. This week, while President Donald Trump rants about rate cuts as if he were at a flea market haggling over the price of used socks, the Fed seems determined to do… nothing! Yes, as you hear it: zero changes. Because? Because, apparently, they like to see the financial market sweat it out.
Trump, that man who has never seen a microphone he doesn’t like, threatened two weeks ago to fire Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Fed, as if he were a kitchen apprentice who burned the soufflé. Then, of course, he retracted it (because who hasn’t said something they regret in a fit of anger?). But the message was clear: the White House wants lower rates, and it wants them now. Reason? According to them, inflation is no longer a problem. Of course, because if Trump says it in Truth Social, it must be true, right?
Inflation: that small detail that nobody wants to see
While Trump proclaims from the rooftops that “THERE IS NO INFLATION” (in capital letters, because if not, it doesn’t count), the data… well, the data are those annoying numbers that insist on contradicting the president. Food prices rose 2.4% annually, gasoline remains above $3 per gallon (not $1.98, as he claims), and the Fed’s favorite indicator shows inflation at 3.6%, almost double its target. But who needs statistics when you have feeling, right?
As if that were not enough, Elon Musk, that multitasking genius who now also opines on monetary policy (because why not?), suggested that his newly invented Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE, a name that inspires as much confidence as a dog meme) review the Fed’s spending. Because, obviously, what the economy needs is for a guy who sells electric cars and space rockets to stick his nose in politics monetary. What could go wrong?
Meanwhile, the Fed, that institution that is supposed to be independent (ha), continues dancing to the rhythm of Trump’s tariffs, which threaten to inflate prices even further. So, in summary: they will not lower rates now, because if they do, it will appear that they are kowtowing to the president. But if they don’t, the economy could suffer. Go caught in your own web.
As BNY economist Vincent Reinhart said: “This time they will be more cautious.” Translation: “After the fiasco of 2021, when they said that inflation was ‘transitory’ and it turned out to be more persistent than a cold in winter, they don’t want to screw up again.” And who blames them.
Moral? The Fed is caught between a president who wants low rates now, inflation that doesn’t stop going down, and its own reputation at stake. Meanwhile, us mere mortals will continue to pay more for milk and wonder: at what point did this all become a reality show?
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