The Art of Negotiation (or how to make 25% look like 10%)
In a twist that reminds us that international trade policy sometimes looks more like a bazaar than an exact science, the Secretary of the Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, has come out with a calculator in hand to announce that the fearsome 25% tariff imposed by the United States on Mexican trucks and buses could, after a series of accounting juggles, remain in a much more bearable 10%. Magic? No, simply the miraculous application of a rule that excludes from payment all auto parts manufactured on American soil.
It seems that, for once, deep economic interdependence works in Mexico’s favor. Ebrard, with the ease of an algebra teacher, explained that, on average, the heavy vehicles assembled here contain around 60% American components. So, doing the homework that many of us avoid at school, the effective rate plummets. It’s a shame that these same discounts cannot be applied to the taxes that ordinary citizens pay.
The Defense of the T-MEC and a Decree with the Smell of Ecology (and Convenience)
But not everything is smiles and optimistic calculations. The official was clear in pointing out that the first thing that Mexico will ask for in the next review of the T-MEC is, basically, that the treaty be complied with. A radical idea, we know. The current imposition of tariffs is, in his opinion, a clear violation of the agreement. It’s like your roommate decided to charge you for using water, even though the contract says it’s included. The White House, for its part, maintains a silence that could well be interpreted as “we’ll see.”
And, as in the best soap operas, just when this commercial challenge is announced, the Mexican government pulls out a decree with a laudable purpose: protecting the environment. The measure will prohibit the import of used heavy vehicles more than 10 years old. Secretary Alicia Bárcena argued, quite rightly, that although diesel vehicles are only 5% of the fleet, they are responsible for 61% of the pollutants. A chilling fact that makes you wonder why action was not taken sooner.
The synchronicity is, to say the least, suspicious. On the one hand, a commercial blow that is intended to be softened, and on the other, a green measure that, in the process, protects the internal market from competition from scrap metal with wheels. A masterstroke, or a coincidence worthy of study. Thus, under the umbrella of decarbonization and decontamination, two birds are killed with one stone: the air we breathe is taken care of (in theory) and the national industry is defended. Brilliant, as long as the real driver of the decision is public health and not just a strategic backlash disguised as ecological awareness.
The final result? A possible 10% tariff that Ebrard sees as a victory, a legal battle ahead in the T-MEC, and a new environmental decree that makes us think if, on the complex board of geopolitics, even the smoke from a diesel exhaust can be used to move chips.
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